The March 16 referendum that passed a new constitution triggered the new election. The referendum also introduced measures such as requiring a two-thirds vote in parliament to enact a state of emergency. Most significant, the new constitution introduces presidential term limits. Now, a president may not serve more than two five-year terms. Because the new charter is not retroactive, it does not bar Mugabe from standing for re-election.
The Zimbabwe African National Union–Patriotic Front, under Mugabe, has largely been the only power holder in Zimbabwe since the country's independence from the United Kingdom in 1980. The party's main motivation is ensuring regime security via re-election. Mugabe is running against the opposition party Movement for Democratic Change, led by Morgan Tsvangirai. This is the first national election since 2008, when the two parties faced off in a tense stalemate that is now likely to be repeated.
A win by the Movement for Democratic Change would likely result in a shift in economic policy. Early moves by Tsvangirai-led party would include a gradual but steady liberalization aimed at restoring foreign investment and, more broadly, the country's degraded economy. Such moves would upset deeply held economic interests, such as shares in diamond mining concessions, among Mugabe regime elites. Losing control of the government would also mean losing command of the armed forces and security services — a pillar of power the regime has used to intimidate Zimbabweans into supporting the government.
The re-election of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front is not incompatible with a degree of liberalization, however. Despite its nationalist rhetoric, the Mugabe regime has been careful to avoid steps that would compromise foreign interests in the country. While it will crack down on relatively defenseless internal opponents like Tsvangirai and his party, as well as on white Zimbabwean farmers who have traditionally supported the Movement for Democratic Change, it is very careful in managing foreign economic interests in Zimbabwe.
Foreign economic activity includes Western mining and agriculture, Chinese mining and construction operations and diverse South African business interests. The Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front continually floats legislation that requires foreign-owned businesses to transfer majority ownership to Zimbabweans to indigenize their operations, but it has not consistently applied this legislation.
Electoral campaigns are occasions for Harare to increase its nationalist rhetoric aimed at a domestic audience in a bid to demonstrate that no matter the country's economic performance, Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front is the only party truly able to defend the country against so-called imperialist aggression. Later, once the election is over, nationalist rhetoric, including indigenization legislation, will be toned down.
And re-election does not necessarily mean Mugabe will serve out another full five-year term, let alone the additional term the new constitution permits him. The Zimbabwean president is declining in health and requires frequent medical trips to East Asia. He has no clear successor, though the new constitution states that the first deputy president will succeed the president should the incumbent die or otherwise become unable to serve.
Joyce Mujuru is the current deputy president, though Defense Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa — another senior Zimbabwe African National Union–Patriotic Front official — is thought to harbor presidential ambitions. Though regime members will coordinate their re-election efforts, their subsequent focus will be on managing Mugabe's eventual exit from power. This will require managing a competitive leadership transition such that the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front does not lose power.
