Zimbabwe's ruling political party, Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), was accused Jan. 18 by the main faction of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) of deploying armed security forces to rural areas of the country in a crackdown on MDC members and Zimbabwean civilians. The MDC accused ZANU-PF of deploying security forces to "inculcate a culture of fear" and called on international bodies — the Southern African Development Community and the African Union — to recognize the crackdown. This action parallels a constitutional revision campaign that had initially been called for by the MDC but which has become a way for ZANU-PF to persuade rural provinces that it is working to defend Zimbabwe's true interests. These are both attempts by ZANU-PF to tighten its grip over the country ahead of elections that could be held as early as mid-2011 — an exact date has not yet been set, and they could occur as late as 2012 — as the party works to avoid a repeat of the elections fiasco of 2008. In 2008, ZANU-PF severely underestimated MDC support and did not mobilize a robust campaign in the first round of the elections. The MDC actually beat ZANU-PF by a single seat in parliament that year, and MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai finished ahead of ZANU-PF leader and President Robert Mugabe in the first round of the presidential poll. But Tsvangirai failed to win a majority, and the MDC decided to boycott the second round after an extensive ZANU-PF intimidation campaign. This led to an overwhelming victory for Mugabe amid widespread accusations of ZANU-PF vote rigging. The political crisis ended with a power-sharing agreement in which Mugabe retained his presidency while Tsvangirai assumed the newly created post of prime minister. However, ZANU-PF retained control over the key levers of power in the country, including the state security apparatus. What the MDC did gain partial control over was the country's various economic ministries (though rival economic institutions, such as the country’s Reserve Bank, are fully under the ZANU-PF thumb), and Tsvangirai's party thus became responsible for the near-impossible task of rebuilding the country's collapsed economy. Tsvangirai's abortive attempts at economic reconstruction have been further frustrated by ZANU-PF, which has worked to create confusion in the government's economic ministries as a way to generate the perception that the MDC is not up to the task. With Mugabe and ZANU-PF pushing for a rush to hold new elections this year, the MDC is in a difficult position. It cannot block ZANU-PF from holding an election. What the MDC can do is hope that a constitutional revision exercise could help the opposition to expose ZANU-PF's shortcomings and generate popular support. Consenting to holding a presidential election is also a losing proposition for the MDC, but it would at least highlight ZANU-PF's faults and remind voters of the disputed 2008 elections. With the crackdown, ZANU-PF has already begun consolidating its power, meaning that even if the MDC mounts a real political challenge, ZANU-PF could simply rig the vote again. However, should the MDC opt out of the elections, due to the intimidation against them and their effective political and economic isolation, ZANU-PF would simply hold the vote anyway and ignore the opposition entirely. All this comes amid rumored health problems for the 87-year-old Mugabe, who has ruled the country since its independence from the United Kingdom in 1980. His ill health has forced him to travel to East Asia a few times a year for medical attention, and unconfirmed reports say he currently is in Malaysia recovering from surgery for prostate cancer. However, with or without Mugabe, ZANU-PF will not permit an elections loss. Should Mugabe succumb to his rumored ailment, an intraparty struggle likely would emerge between a faction led by Defense Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa and one led by former army commander Solomon Mujuru, who is seeking to install his wife, Vice President Joyce Mujuru, as Mugabe's successor. Neither faction has yet emerged a clear favorite to take power in such an event, but this internal struggle is unlikely to fracture the party enough to allow for an MDC victory.