Editor's Note: This is the second of a three-part series on Central Europe's changing views of the European Union and Russia. Part 1 discussed the Central European countries' historical alignments with either Moscow or the West. Part 2 examines the national interests shaping each Central European country's ties with the West and Russia. Part 3 looks at the varying interests that will continue driving Central Europe's policies toward the West and Russia.
In the context of the European financial crisis and a resurgent Russia, the countries of Central Europe — Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria — have diverged in their relationships with the European Union and Moscow. Rather than acting as a bloc, as they have for decades, each country in Central Europe is balancing between East and West based on its own national interests.
The Central European countries' current relationships with Russia and the West vary, depending on each country's security, political and economic needs.
Poland
Because of Poland's geographic exposure to Russia and its traditional strategic interests in borderland countries like Ukraine and Belarus, Warsaw has had the most aggressive stance toward Moscow of all the Central European countries. This has included the pursuit of strong security ties with NATO and the United States especially, most notably in the form of ballistic missile defense — to which Russia has responded with a strong security posture in the region. Poland has also challenged Russia on the energy front, seeking to ease its dependence on Russian natural gas by constructing a liquefied natural gas import terminal and exploring its large shale gas reserves for supplies in the long term.
Economically, Poland has been one of the few countries in Europe to grow throughout the crisis, though slower growth over the past year and the European Union's financial issues have dampened Warsaw's desire for further economic integration, with eurozone membership off the table in the short to medium term. While Poland's economic ties with Russia are weaker than most other Central European countries', the Russian market nevertheless remains important for Poland in the face of weak EU demand. Therefore, while Poland strongly favors the European Union and NATO in its balance between East and West on political and security matters, Russia continues to be an important country for Warsaw from an economic perspective.
Czech Republic
The Czech Republic is much more buffered from Russia geographically and therefore is less aggressive toward Moscow than Poland is on many issues. Therefore, Prague's pursuit of a concrete security commitment from the United States and its military entanglements with Russia are limited. Because of its high dependence on Russian energy supplies and geography (unlike Poland, the Czech Republic does not have the option of pursuing a liquefied natural gas terminal, though it may attempt pipeline linkages to coastal liquefied natural gas facilities in the future), Prague's energy diversification efforts are also more limited and less aggressive than Warsaw's. However, the Czech Republic is more integrated economically with the European Union — and particularly with Germany — than are most other Central European countries, and therefore it is less reliant on the Russian market and less susceptible to Russian economic influence. Still, the Czech Republic has long been one of the most Euroskeptical countries in Central Europe, and Russia has been slowly increasing economic ties in areas like machinery, energy storage and agriculture.
Slovakia
Like the Czech Republic, Slovakia is geographically buffered from Russia, located on the opposite side of the Carpathian Mountains. As the only Central European country in the eurozone, Slovakia is the most closely integrated with the European Union from an economic perspective. However, Slovakia is also very dependent on Russia for energy, with Russia accounting for roughly 60 percent of its energy supplies. This makes Slovakia relatively balanced in its economic relationship between East and West, with Bratislava much less aggressive in its dealings with Russia on the energy front, but also less susceptible to Russian economic penetration and strategic acquisitions. In the realm of security, Slovakia also has been less assertive in courting a Western military presence as a challenge to Russia than countries like Poland and Romania.
Hungary
Hungary's geographic position in relation to Russia is similar to that of the Czech Republic and Slovakia, behind the Carpathian line. However, the Hungarian financial sector has been particularly vulnerable to the European crisis over the past few years. This has made the Hungarian government — which has carried out controversial nationalizations in the banking and energy sectors, to the European Union's chagrin — deeply skeptical about economic integration with the union. This has, in turn, given Russia more opportunities to wield greater economic influence in Hungary and opened up commercial relationships for Moscow within the country. On the security front, Hungary has been less confrontational toward Russia than Poland or Romania but has also stayed committed to its NATO membership.
Romania
Romania is, along with Poland, relatively aggressive in its political and security relationship with Russia. This stems from the country's geographic exposure to Russia in the east and the accompanying dispute with Moscow over Moldova, where Russia and Romania retain rival strategic interests. This has prompted Romania to seek a greater U.S. security presence in areas like ballistic missile defense and by serving as a logistical base for U.S. and NATO operations in Afghanistan.
Romania also depends on Russian energy supplies less than the other Central European countries, producing much of its own oil and gas. However, Romania is one of the countries least integrated with the European Union economically, with the country joining the bloc relatively late and not yet a member of the Schengen zone. This has made Romania more willing to cooperate with Russia economically, conducting many deals through third parties, but highly skeptical of Russia on security matters.
Bulgaria
Of the Central European countries, Bulgaria has one of the most cooperative relationships with Russia. This stems from many factors, including Bulgaria's being the most dependent on Russian natural gas and the least developed and integrated with the European Union economically (like Romania, Bulgaria is not party to the Schengen agreement). Bulgaria has the highest level of trade with Russia and the lowest with the European Union in Central Europe. Bulgaria's location on the Black Sea and its lack of territorial disputes with Russia (historically, the country has close cultural and political ties with Moscow) has also given the country a prized position in Russian energy efforts. This includes the planned South Stream natural gas project, where Bulgaria is the site of the pipeline's landfall. However, Bulgaria is a committed ally of the West in the security sphere, as a NATO member hosting a U.S. lily pad base and potentially part of the NATO ballistic missile defense shield.
Next: How national interests will continue driving Central European countries' policies toward the European Union and Russia.
