The parliament's decision to dissolve itself is the latest episode in a political saga that began in June, when former Prime Minister Petr Necas resigned in the wake of a corruption scandal involving some of his closest assistants. President Milos Zeman then appointed an interim government, but his administration failed to get the support of parliament. As a result, Czechs will go to the polls roughly seven months before the original election date, which had been set for May 2014.
Necas' center-right Civic Democratic Party has headed various coalition governments since 2006 but was severely hurt by the corruption scandals. The elections will pit Necas' party against the center-left Social Democratic Party, which is currently leading in opinion polls. Since none of the major Czech parties will be able to form a government on its own, smaller formations will likely play a key part in the next government. These include the Communist Party, which could form an alliance with the social democrats, and TOP 09, which hopes to become the country's leading conservative force. Zeman's center-left Party of Civic Rights and the euroskeptical Sovereignty party (which is negotiating an alliance with former President Vaclav Klaus) will also compete.
The elections will take place in a complex political and economic scenario. Unemployment reached 7 percent in the second quarter of 2013, considerably below the EU average of 11 percent, but the Czech economy contracted by 1.3 percent in 2012, and Eurostat forecasts a 0.4 percent contraction this year. The last two years of Necas' government saw numerous protests by workers, students and pensioners against spending cuts, tax rises and corruption. Zeman's recent attempts to override parliament in the appointment of a new government further fueled the Czech public's political disenchantment. Opinion polls show that Czechs are weary of the country's political elites, and a recent Eurobarometer poll revealed that only four in 10 Czechs are optimistic about the future of the European Union.
Distrust of mainstream parties is leading to increased popular support for the Communist Party. Since the end of the Cold War, the Communist Party has been relatively isolated, with most parties refusing to cooperate with the communists. But in recent times, the party has softened its image, apologizing for the excesses committed during communist rule and appealing to voters who are disenchanted with the existing political elites and are nostalgic for the Communist era, when cheap housing and job security were prevalent. The goal of the party is to be seen as a viable coalition partner by moderate forces in the center-left.
The Czech Republic's Role in Europe
On the surface, the Czech parliamentary system fosters competition among several parties, and the situation may often seem chaotic. The Czech political establishment is currently absorbing the impact of the European economic crisis, and further political instability cannot be ruled out. Zeman is the first directly elected Czech president, and he will use this enhanced legitimacy to try to expand the powers of his office, which already include the ability to veto legislation. This could lead to further clashes with parliament, slowing the responsiveness of the government and increasing public frustration. This conflict between the president and parliament is echoed in other Central and Eastern European countries, with Romania being the most notable case. In that country, political frictions between the center-right President Traian Basescu and the center-left government led by Victor Ponta led to a serious political crisis in 2012.
But underneath the day-to-day politics, most Czech state strategies are fairly stable. In this sense, even a coalition of center-left and left-wing forces would not substantially change the country's direction in the short-to-medium term.
Because of their location in Central Europe (on the eastern flank of stronger powers in Germany and Austria, and relatively isolated from direct threats from Russia), Czechs have traditionally been closely connected to the Germanic world. The Kingdom of Bohemia (the predecessor of the modern Czech Republic) was a part of the Holy Roman Empire for eight centuries, until the latter's dissolution in 1806. Starting in the early 16th century, Bohemia as well as the rest of the empire was ruled by the Habsburg dynasty. In the 19th century, after the Holy Roman Empire dissolved, Bohemia became a part of the Austrian (and later Austro-Hungarian) Empire. The Czechoslovak Republic was created following World War I, but it was later invaded by Nazi and then Soviet forces, becoming a Soviet satellite state for nearly 40 years before gaining independence in 1989. In 1993, Czechoslovakia was peacefully partitioned into two independent nations, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
Since the end of Communism, the Czech Republic has consolidated itself into one of the most industrialized and open economies in Central Europe. Gross domestic product per capita is around 85 percent of the EU average. Czech industries produce capital goods, iron and steel, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, electronics and vehicles. Following historic trends, the Czech Republic remains a part of Germany's economic sphere of influence, with exports accounting for more than 70 percent of its gross domestic product and Germany as its top trade partner. One-third of all Czech exports go to Germany, and a quarter of its imports come from its western neighbor.
Like Germany, the Czech Republic depends on Russian energy. But geographically, the Czech Republic is better insulated from Russia than are Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania (all of which directly border former Soviet states), thus reducing Moscow's political and economic leverage over the country. As a result, Prague feels less threatened than its neighbors by Russia's growing influence in Eastern Europe, but it also has fewer means to attract Russian money to counterbalance its dependence on Germany.
In the context of a weakening European Union, some EU members on the eastern edge of the bloc have the option of fostering closer ties with Russia. But the Czech Republic has historically been more economically oriented toward the West. Other than Germany, its trade partners are highly fragmented, making it harder for Prague to replace Berlin with Moscow as a key partner. While more than 30 percent of Czech exports go to Germany, roughly 4 percent go to Russia.
Prague's strategic interest is to stay aligned with Germany on economic issues, while preserving a certain degree of political autonomy at home. The Czech Republic has no interest in joining the eurozone in the foreseeable future, given the issues afflicting the currency zone and the Czech Republic's desire to be able to change its monetary policy if needed. Moreover, Prague will resist some of Germany's attempts to deepen European integration, as it did when it refused to sign the European Union's fiscal compact treaty and when it rejected joining the European Union's banking union. But the country is deeply connected to the German economic sphere and has fewer options than its eastern neighbors. As a result, Prague will remain aligned with Germany.
