The Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan has been a major rival to the regime of Rakhmon ever since Tajikistan's civil war (1992-1997). The party sought to restore the role of Islam in the country following the collapse of the Soviet Union. It aligned itself with democratic groups and clans from eastern Tajikistan to form the United Tajik Opposition against the secular Popular Front. With Russian and Uzbek assistance, the Popular Front eventually signed a truce with the United Tajik Opposition, whereby Rakhmon would become president and Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan members would be placed in key political and security posts — as would members of other opposition groups.
Since then, Rakhmon has steadily consolidated his power — and the power of his clan and his political allies — at the expense of the Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan and other opposition groups. Rakhmon has won both presidential elections since the civil war with more than 80 percent of the popular vote, though international observers deemed the elections unfair. While his victories enhanced his political power, they also provoked backlash among his opponents, particularly those in the rebel strongholds in eastern Tajikistan, the traditional Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan support base.
Indeed, eastern Tajikistan has seen several security incidents since 2010. In August 2010, several high-profile opposition figures (whom the government referred to as Islamist militants) escaped from a prison in Dushanbe, leading to several attacks as the escapees fled to the Rasht Valley. Security sweeps throughout the valley continued thereafter, and the Tajik government reportedly established a permanent security presence in the area. In July 2012, the death of a top security official in Khorog prompted the military to deploy troops to the city, which saw clashes between residents and security forces.
Fueling the Opposition
In conjunction with these events, the Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan — the only legally registered Islamist party in Central Asia and the second-largest party in Tajikistan, with an official membership of more than 40,000 — has seen the government crack down on its activities, especially in Gorno-Badakhshan. Several party officials have been killed or have gone missing in the past few years. The government has also cracked down on Islamic elements in the country, shutting down mosques or banning the hijab, for example.
But crackdowns have had the opposite effect of what the government intended: They have fueled support for the Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan. The party saw a decline in popularity in the 2000s, and while a leadership transition prevented it from participating in the 2006 elections, the party has become much more active in recent years under the leadership of Muhiddin Kabiri. Kabiri has moderated the party's official stance and has urged cooperation with other opposition groups to challenge Rakhmon. He has also made overtures to Russia. Kabiri has said that the party will participate in the November presidential election, either on its own or in a coalition, and that it will not support the pro-government candidate — presumably Rakhmon.
In this context, Bulbulov's recent statements are anomalous. That Khorog is a particularly sensitive area for the Rakhmon government gives some credence to the allegations of coercion. Bulbulov also said Khorog's party membership, which the Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan lists as 3,000 people, actually consists of no more than 40 people. Underreporting party membership serves the interest of the government, which wants to portray the Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan as less influential than it is. Notably, the allegations coincide with a large, government-driven media campaign against the Islamist party.
Further crackdowns and pressure can be expected as the November election draws near. So far, Russia has stayed out of Tajikistan's domestic affairs — Rakhmon recently has bolstered security ties with Moscow to ensure its continued support. The Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan's ties to supporters in Afghanistan — particularly in northern Afghanistan, which has a large ethnic concentration of Tajiks — has also been relatively muted, likely due to a focus on talks and tensions between Taliban and anti-Taliban forces in the country. But increased pressure on the opposition party could create political and security problems that would affect not only Tajikistan's domestic stability but also draw greater attention from Russia and Afghanistan.
