Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon's brother-in-law Holmumin Safarov was killed late June 13 in Dushanbe. Safarov's murder occurred at around 9:40 p.m. in the Hayoti Nav neighborhood as he was returning home from evening prayer. The perpetrators of the murder and their motive remain unclear, and the Prosecutor General's office has launched an investigation into the incident.
The assassination is probably not connected to other security-related issues that Tajikistan has been facing lately, such as militancy or the emergence of new religious- and youth-based political movements. However, Safarov's murder could give Rakhmon another excuse to crack down on dissidence in Tajikistan and could undermine the country's fragile stability.
Safarov, the husband of Rakhmon's eldest sister, was the director of Tadzhikles, a forestry and hunting agency under the Committee for Environmental Protection. Since Tajikistan is a clan-based society and a small, close-knit elite runs the government, it is possible that Safarov was targeted due to his political connections and clan ties. He also could have been targeted by organized criminal elements. However, Safarov was not known to have participated in any large business ventures in the country despite his connections to the president and the potentially lucrative timber industry. Safarov was not a major power broker within the country, and his death is unlikely to disturb the political power structures of Rakhmon's regime.
However, the murder occurred around the same time as a few other unusual and notable developments. On June 12, Tajikistan's Communications Service ordered local Internet providers to block access to Tajikistan's leading independent news agency Asia-Plus, reportedly due to technical problems. However, it was later clarified that access to the Asia-Plus website was blocked after it published some reader comments that officials saw as critical of authorities. Access to Asia-Plus was restored June 14. This is not the first time authorities have blocked access to websites, but the timing of this latest block is notable.
This also comes as Tajikistan has seen the emergence of new political movements registering as parties ahead of presidential elections in 2013. While most do not pose a threat to Rakhmon, one particular group, called the Youth Party — which has ties to the Islamic Renaissance Party, an important rebel group that has held since the country's civil war in the 1990s — could be troubling for the regime, due to its youth and religious affiliations.
More broadly speaking, Central Asia has seen a number of recent security incidents, and Stratfor identified the region as a potential hot spot for 2012. Tajikistan is especially important given its proximity to Afghanistan and the 2010 high-profile prison break in which a number of militants escaped and subsequently engaged in shootouts with security forces after sweeps were undertaken in the rebel stronghold of Rasht Valley. The government subsequently implemented a number of security sweeps and crackdowns on militant and religious elements. While Safarov's killing is probably not connected to these developments, it raises the probability of further oppression by security forces and growing pressures on Tajikistan's tenuous stability.
