Recent statements by Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon highlighted the threats to stability — both foreign and domestic — that Tajikistan will face during the politically sensitive time ahead of the November presidential election. In his annual address to parliament April 26, Rakhmon promised that the upcoming vote will be fair and transparent, but he warned that Tajik opposition parties should not rely on "foreign patrons" for support or attempt to create a situation similar to the one that led to Tajikistan's civil war in the mid-1990s. The speech likely reflected Rakhmon's concerns about the electoral challenge posed by opposition parties — especially the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan, the regime's strongest rival — as well as other issues that will test the country's stability, such as restive rebel populations in the eastern provinces and Tajikistan's complicated relationship with Russia.
Tajikistan has weathered several bouts of volatility since breaking away from the Soviet Union in 1991. Shortly after independence, the country descended into a civil war lasting from 1992 to 1997 that involved a number of competing factions divided along regional and ideological lines. Rakhmon led the victorious Popular Front, a coalition of clans from the Khujand and Kulyab regions in western Tajikistan, against the United Tajik Opposition — a loose alliance of Democrats, Islamists and the Gami and Pamiri clans native to the country's east.
Rakhmon dominated the two presidential elections held since the end of the war, purportedly gaining 97 percent of the vote in 1999 and nearly 80 percent in 2006. Both elections were deemed unfair by independent observers and lacked participation from several opposition groups, including the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan, which boycotted the vote in 2006. Moreover, many of the opposition figures who were incorporated into the government after the war in accordance with a Russia-brokered truce were eventually purged as Rakhmon consolidated power.
The political landscape in Tajikistan has shifted significantly since 2006. The Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan has become more popular, likely in response to increased religiosity in the country. In response, the government has attempted to suppress religious influences (especially Islamic influences) in various ways — by banning hijabs and closing mosques, for example — but such moves have only further fueled support for the Islamic opposition. The government also detained several members of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan over the past year, and party offices were vandalized on multiple occasions, indicating that the regime is feeling increasingly threatened by the opposition party.
Rakhmon's concerns about the opposition are not limited to politics. Several major security incidents have occurred in Tajikistan over the past two years. In August 2010, a high-profile prison break in Dushanbe led to security sweeps in the Rasht district, a rebel stronghold. In July 2012, the military launched operations in the eastern Gorno-Badakhshan province in response to the killing of a regional security official. Groups from both regions fought against Rakhmon and his allies during the civil war, and concern is growing in Dushanbe that such violence could flare up again before and during the elections.
New Tensions With Russia
The regime is also facing challenges from abroad. Over the past two months, tensions have increased somewhat between Tajikistan and Russia, the pre-eminent power in Central Asia. Rakhmon's regime has traditionally maintained a strong relationship with the Kremlin, with Tajikistan hosting some 7,000 Russian military personnel on three bases. Moreover, remittances from Tajik workers in Russia make up nearly 35 percent of Tajikistan's gross domestic product. But such ties have not precluded occasional diplomatic disputes, including the detention of Russian pilots in Tajikistan in November 2011, and intermittent spats over duties on oil products from Russia.
The most recent contentious issue involves extending the leases of Russia's military facilities in Tajikistan. Dushanbe ostensibly has reached an agreement with Moscow, but the Tajik Parliament has yet to ratify the extensions. This has fueled speculation that Rakhmon is stalling in hopes of coaxing a better deal out of Moscow, possibly involving financial incentives or duty-free oil supplies. On April 14, Russian railway operator Rospotrebnadzor stopped a Tajik train bound for Moscow at the Kazakh border and barred a section of it from entering Russia, citing "violations of sanitary requirements." Prior to the incident, Russia's deputy head of the Border Service of the Federal Security Service, Vladimir Mochalov, said rail service between the two countries should be suspended altogether.
The rail links are highly valuable to Tajikistan for transporting Tajik laborers to Russia, so these moves could be seen as Russian pressure in response to Dushanbe's delay of the military base extension. Russia has also reportedly been considering strengthening ties with the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan — a rumor that may have motivated Rakhmon's warning to opposition parties against soliciting foreign support.
These issues have created an uneasy dynamic ahead of Tajikistan's presidential election. To extend his nearly two decades in power, Rakhmon must navigate the growing challenges posed by forces inside Tajikistan and by his main patron in Moscow. How Rakhmon responds will shape the political trajectory of Tajikistan's future, as well as the general security environment and degree of stability throughout the country.
