The case of two pilots working for Russia’s Rolkan airline who were detained and convicted Nov. 8 on smuggling charges in Tajikistan went to a higher court Nov. 16, as Tajikistan’s Khatlon regional court accepted for review the pilots’ complaints about the case. On Nov. 15, Russia deported 300 Tajik migrants in response to the pilots’ case, which has been a source of diplomatic tension between Tajikistan and Russia. The specifics and eventual results of the case remain unclear. However, the pilot row offers a case study of the dilemma faced by former Soviet states in their attempts to elicit concessions from and stand up to Russia. The pilots — one a Russian citizen and one an Estonian citizen — were detained in March when their Antonov An-72 jets landed at Tajikistan’s Kyrgan-Tyube airport after running out of fuel on their way back from delivering humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. Moscow claimed that the pilots had permission to fly via Tajikistan, but Dushanbe denied these claims, and the pilots were accused of having an unassembled engine (which the pilots said was being used for spare parts) on board. A Tajik court convicted the pilots Nov. 8, sentencing them to eight and a half years in jail despite Russia’s request for their release. There has been much speculation about Tajikistan’s motives for convicting the pilots; some reports have said the decision was a retaliatory measure against Russia’s detention of two Tajiks with ties to Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon on drug charges several months before the pilots were detained in Tajikistan. If this is true — and whether the move was meant as retaliation is still a matter of dispute, with Dushanbe officially denying it — it still does not explain why Tajikistan would retaliate against Russia and challenge Moscow so publicly. Tajikistan is a former Soviet state where Russia retains numerous levers, including a substantial military presence at several bases around the country and a large presence in the Tajik economy. Tajikistan knows well that Russia can pressure it in several ways, such as cutting financial assistance or energy exports. Moscow already has responded to the pilots' sentencing by sending hundreds of Tajik migrants working in Russia back to Tajikistan and threatening to deport thousands more — something that would harm the economy in Tajikistan, where remittances from workers outside the country make up 40 percent of the gross domestic product, and could also have security implications. Russia's influence over Tajikistan does not mean that Dushanbe will unconditionally obey Moscow, however, as this latest row has shown.

The Post-Soviet Dilemma in Other Countries

The current Tajik-Russian dispute in a sense parallels recent tensions between Russia and another former Soviet state: Ukraine. When Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich came to power in 2010, he was labeled pro-Russian and indeed acted pro-Russian by signing the landmark natural gas-for-Black Sea Fleet deal early in his term. But Yanukovich did not do this out of benevolence or an affinity for Russia; he signed the deal thinking it would benefit his government and country, lowering natural gas prices at a time of financial difficulty. When natural gas prices increased over the following year, Yanukovich began acting less pro-Russian by challenging Russia to lower prices. When Russia refused unless Ukraine gave more concessions, Ukraine began threatening to take Russian energy firm Gazprom to court over the deal and increased cooperation with the European Union in order to gain more leverage over Russia. Recent developments in Belarus are analogous to those in Ukraine and Tajikistan. Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko eagerly joined the customs union with Russia, but mainly because he thought he would get concessions from Moscow, such as lower energy prices. Russia did not see their relationship that way and cut off supplies when Belarus refused to pay its natural gas bill, which Minsk argued was too high. Belarus eventually did get lower natural gas prices, but only after giving Russia many of its strategic assets, such as its pipeline system. Ukraine appears to be headed down that same path, with a new natural gas deal looming that will have many conditions attached. In the end, Russia has ended up getting what it originally wanted without making the concessions Belarus and Ukraine asked for — at least not until Moscow's demands were met.

Tajikistan's Possible Motives

This context highlights the possible motives behind Tajikistan's actions during the recent pilot case. Tajikistan has been open to Russian influence, including allowing Moscow to boost its military presence in the country. But from Rakhmon's perspective, Russia has not reciprocated (even though Russia's military presence in the country in many ways benefits the Tajik government). Dushanbe has repeatedly asked Moscow to lower export duties on fuel supplies to Tajikistan, which Moscow has not done (although it has done so for Kyrgyzstan). Tajikistan also has looked to Russia for support in the construction of the Rogun dam hydroelectricity plant, which Moscow — for its own political reasons related to Uzbekistan — has not given. Russia, meanwhile, has not been entirely pleased with its relationship with Tajikistan. Despite Russia's large military presence in the country, there are some areas in which Russia has expressed interest in increasing its presence. For instance, Moscow has said it wants to resume patrolling the Tajik-Afghan border and use Tajikistan's Ayni air base. Rakhmon has resisted giving in to both demands. Rakhmon could be questioning the reasoning behind giving Russia more concessions when the benefits he was hoping to gain from his previous concessions have not materialized. Rakhmon therefore could be feeling slighted by Russia and is attempting to stand up to Moscow to gain equal footing. The problem for Dushanbe is that Moscow does not see Tajikistan — or Belarus, Ukraine or other former Soviet states — as being on equal footing with Russia, and Russia is capable of forcing these countries into cooperating without giving any unnecessary concessions. This might not fully explain Tajikistan's challenge to Russia about the convicted pilots, but it does show why — regardless of its motivations — Dushanbe likely is doomed to fail in its attempt to stand up to Moscow.