On Nov. 1, the Kuwaiti government released Musallam al Barrack, a prominent opposition and tribal leader, who had been jailed for insulting Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah at a political rally. The previous night, al Barrack supporters, including hundreds of members of his powerful al Mutairi tribe, clashed with police in several areas throughout the country. The clashes left at least seven protesters wounded. Several other opposition figures have been arrested, and the government has banned gatherings of more than 20 people in a bid to curb the protests.
Al Barrack's arrest stems from a controversial change to the country's electoral law. Previously, the law allowed all eligible voters to cast ballots for four candidates. On Oct. 19, al-Sabah decreed that voters could only select one candidate. (An earlier attempt by the government to change the law through the courts fell flat when the Supreme Court refused to overturn the old law.) The new law favors the ruling family and limits opposition representation.
With the new law, al-Sabah intends to reconfigure the composition of the parliament and reduce the number of opposition candidates. There have been several Cabinet reshuffles and eight new governments since the current emir took power in 2006 — the December parliamentary elections will be the fifth in that time span. Each successive election has seen the opposition garner a greater number of seats in parliament and progressively challenge the government through the use of interpolations and criticisms of ministers, including former Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser al-Mohammad al-Sabah. The government has used the near constant political chaos to limit the opposition's effectiveness.
Tensions, however, have escalated as each side continues to push the other's boundaries. In 2011, opposition protesters stormed the parliamentary building after having tried to rally in front of the prime minister's house. The conflict has stalled several multibillion dollar infrastructure and energy projects and has undermined a $111 billion government development plan that included the construction of a metro, power station, hospital, new roads and an airport expansion. Fitch Ratings warned that a serious escalation in Kuwait's political turmoil could threaten the country's sovereign AA rating. Fitch noted that Kuwait's external balance "is the strongest of all Fitch-rated countries," meaning Kuwait's rating could withstand some additional instability.
Reconciliation is Elusive
At the heart of the political turmoil is a long-running feud between competing factions of the ruling al Sabah family. The fight involves the exclusion by the current emir of the second main branch of the al Sabahs, the al Salem branch, from the line of succession. Confrontations between parliament and the government initially served as a proxy conflict for al Sabah infighting, but over the past several years the clashes have worsened, with an empowered opposition growing more willing and aggressive in challenging the power and role of the ruling family.
Popular opposition to the ruling family comes from a breach in the social contract. Kuwait was founded by a group of exiles who fled the Najd region in central Saudi Arabia. These early merchants appointed the al Sabah family as first among equals, with the understanding that the al Sabah would govern and free up the merchants to focus on business. Over the last decade, however, as Kuwait has re-emerged after the ouster of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, the regime has gotten more involved in the economy.
Heightening tensions and the threat to the longevity of al Sabah rule may be forcing the ruling family to reconcile. The al Sabah family council held a meeting at the emir's residence on Oct. 22, suggesting that the ruling family may be seeking ways to resolve internal differences in order to quell the unrest. Changes in senior leadership — such as the appointment of a prime minister from the al Salem branch — would indicate a deal has been reached. However, even if such a deal is under consideration, none can be reached until after the Dec. 1 elections, when a new Cabinet is appointed.
Reconciliation would have limited impact unless the ruling family can co-opt or eliminate the opposition. On Oct. 22, the emir met with sheikhs from tribes at the forefront of the opposition movement in a bid to reaffirm cooperation. But as attested by the recent clashes with opposition protesters, many of them tribal members, reconciliation remains elusive.
In the coming month, protests will continue and some will likely result in clashes with security forces. Al Barrack's early release sets a precedent that could have lasting implications for the ruling family. It suggests that the government is backing down, fearful of escalating violent clashes between tribal elements and security forces. This will embolden the opposition.
An announcement by the opposition that it would boycott the polls has also resulted in a reduction in the registration of candidates. If carried out, the boycott could yield a parliament that lacks a popular mandate — or could even lead to a cancellation of the elections.
The government may negotiate with various tribes to try to break their cooperation, or it may work on fracturing the merchant elite further by offering financial incentives, such as government contracts. Ultimately, the December elections will be an important test for the government and for the opposition.
