Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez won re-election Oct. 7 in what appears to have been a landslide. The Venezuelan National Electoral Council announced that Chavez won 54.4 percent of the vote to Miranda state Gov. Henrique Capriles Radonski's 44.9 percent with 90 percent of ballots counted, earning Chavez another six-year term as president. The results come after contradictory exit polls indicated each candidate held a significant lead, which had led to concerns about potential unrest regardless of the final outcome.
Capriles has accepted the results. Although significant questions will likely remain about the widespread allegations of voter fraud and intimidation, it will be difficult to directly challenge the results of the election given the large margin of victory. Consequently, despite the tumultuous political environment leading up to the election and the rumors circulating while voting was taking place, the opposition will concentrate its efforts on the next political opportunity instead of fighting the results of this election.
A Chavez win does more than just prolong the status quo in Venezuela; it raises serious questions about the viability of the economic system Chavez has established. After years of nationalization, deteriorating infrastructure and significant inflation, economic management will be a driving concern for Chavez, as it would have been for Capriles. The difference for Chavez is that he will have to forge a path forward without investor confidence, a deficit that will continue to hurt Venezuela's declining petroleum industry.
There also remain serious concerns about Chavez's health. The Venezuelan president was diagnosed with cancer in 2011, and although rumors about his illness have faded prior to the Oct. 7 election, there is no evidence to reliably support claims that his cancer is in remission. As a leader dealing with a serious illness, Chavez will begin looking for a successor, and those around him will begin jockeying for control. Under a 2009 revision of the Venezuelan constitution, if the president dies while president-elect or before the first four years of his term are completed, the president of the National Assembly — currently Diosdado Cabello — would become president and be required to call for snap elections within 30 days. In that circumstance, Capriles may have a second chance at election, and sooner than Chavez's six-year term might otherwise indicate.
