Polls are closing in the Oct. 7 Venezuelan presidential election, but supporters of both President Hugo Chavez and opposition candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski claim their candidates are in the lead. The situation is volatile, and though only limited incidents of violence have yet been reported, the situation could destabilize. The results will inevitably disappoint one side or the other, and widespread unrest is likely.

According to the National Electoral Council, polling stations where there are still lines will wait for the voting to complete before they close. Roving bands of men wearing red and riding motorcycles have reportedly been harassing voting stations all day. Some reports allege that the men have taken over or threatened to take over voting stations. This behavior is typical for Venezuelan elections, which tend to be tumultuous at the best of times.

The key to this election will be the official results. At this point, it is unclear when the National Electoral Council will put an end to the speculation. It is illegal to publish exit polls before the official reports are announced, though results from exit polls have been leaking into foreign press, and Stratfor has received various reports. According to sources in the National Electoral Council, Chavez has a lead of 5 percentage points with nearly 80 percent of the vote counted. However, Stratfor has received word that Capriles has a lead of 1 million votes.

It will also be critical how the military and government officials react to the situation. Chief of the Operational Strategic Command of the National Armed Force Maj. Gen. Wilmer Barrientos has stated that the military stands ready to protect voters still at the polls and the results of the election. Chavez has stated that he will accept the results, and Vice President Elias Jaua has called on observers to await the official results.

Outside of officialdom, the reaction of unofficial armed groups will be critical to watch. Many supporters of Chavez are armed — some officially so, like the Bolivarian Militias — and some less officially so, like localized collective self-defense groups. Their reaction may not be scripted, and thus difficult to control and evenn more difficult to predict.

Nevertheless, the final results of the election will be influenced by the political reaction in Miraflores Palace. The voting system in Venezuela is modern enough that faking the results would be difficult to hide. Even if Chavez wins fairly, the general sense of optimism among the opposition in the lead up to the vote in the face of a loss will likely provoke a serious reaction. The protests and botched coup attempt of 2002 are testament to the potential power of a political opposition united for the first time in a decade behind Capriles.