Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have long been considered Central Asia's leaders, and the states have competed for regional power and influence since the Soviet era. Uzbekistan is an independent-minded state that is self-sufficient in food and energy and has the largest population and strongest military in Central Asia. Kazakhstan possesses energy wealth from its vast oil reserves and has one of the stronger economies in the region; moreover, Astana is tightly aligned with Moscow and maintains decent relations with Beijing and Washington.
The distrust between Astana and Tashkent permeates the countries' policies, affecting their attempts to gain influence among Central Asian states as well as their alignments with the greater powers outside the region. The Uzbek and Kazakh leaders have not hidden their enmity or the perennial competition between their countries. The presidents have held only a few bilateral meetings over the past decade. However, the two governments understand the need to maintain ties. As Nazarbayev said in 2006, "The geopolitical situation in our region and the future of integration processes among our neighbors depends on Kazakh-Uzbek relations."
The two countries seem to come together in times of crisis. In 2010, the two leaders met bilaterally twice within a matter of months. This was prompted by a crucial concern for both countries: Neighboring Kyrgyzstan was destabilizing and eventually fell into a revolution and ethnic violence.
Numerous regional issues are now causing concern for Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Kyrgyzstan's political and security situation is unstable again. The country's ruling coalition collapsed in August, and although a new government began forming Sept. 5, the new political structure leaves open the possibility of a strong opposition. This would keep the country politically unstable and increase the probability of large protests. Nazarbayev just visited the Kyrgyz capital, hoping to ensure that Kazakhstan's interests in the country will not be affected by political changes. Other concerns regarding Kyrgyzstan include a series of economic-related protests and border skirmishes with Uzbekistan.
Tajikistan's security situation has also degraded. In July, the military launched an operation in eastern Tajikistan's Gorno-Badakhshan province that led to the most serious outbreak of fighting the country has seen since its civil war in the 1990s. The military operation also led to protests against the government and its security presence in the region. Amid the violence, rumors emerged that the Tajik opposition was being aided by nearby Afghan elements — a matter of great concern to all Central Asian states as the United States prepares to pull out of Afghanistan by 2014.
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan know that instability in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan can easily spread across borders. Moreover, neither Astana nor Tashkent wants the other to take advantage of instability within Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan by using political connections, security assistance or minority populations within the two countries. With the region unstable and its future uncertain, it is natural that the Kazakh and Uzbek leaders would want to coordinate with each other.
There is an issue beyond regional stability for the leaders to discuss. Uzbekistan recently re-evaluated its position in the region regarding the large outside power, Russia. Though Tashkent and Moscow have a difficult relationship, Uzbekistan had moderated its hostility by remaining linked into Russia's alliance networks in the region — specifically the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Moreover, Uzbekistan previously did not have a strong relationship with any other major power, such as the United States or China. This changed in June, when Uzbekistan pulled out of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. The move spurred rumors that Tashkent could be reaching out to both Washington and Beijing — a direct threat to Russia's position in Central Asia.
Despite Uzbekistan's break with Russia, it is in Tashkent's interest to have an amicable understanding with Astana on Uzbekistan's new foreign policy direction. Despite any tensions in their bilateral relations, the countries do share significant economic, population and energy links. Communication between the two countries becomes particularly important as other major issues — such as those in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan — crop up along their borders. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have tried to maintain balance in the region, but there are fundamental differences about how they want to do so — leaving many variables that could throw that balance off.
