What We're Tracking
The European Parliament votes on an EU‑U.S. trade framework. The European Parliament is set to hold a plenary vote March 26 on implementing the 2025 EU‑U.S. trade framework agreement. After months of delays and temporary freezes triggered by U.S. tariff threats linked to the Greenland dispute and new Section 301 investigations following the Supreme Court ruling that struck down much of U.S. President Donald Trump's earlier tariff regime, the Trade Committee cleared the deal March 19. Lawmakers have incorporated safeguards to address ongoing trade policy volatility in Washington, including clauses that tie EU tariff cuts to U.S. compliance with the terms of the deal and that provide for suspension mechanisms should U.S. tariffs target member states over foreign policy or territorial disputes. Approval would finalize the parliament's negotiating position but still require negotiation with EU member states before the deal enters effect. The agreement will remain politically fragile throughout this process as Brussels seeks to preserve trans-Atlantic trade while guarding against any U.S. move to reinstate tariffs that diverge from agreed-upon parameters.
Elections in Denmark, France and Italy. Voters in Italy head to the polls March 22–23 for a constitutional referendum on a controversial overhaul of the judicial system that would separate the career paths of judges and prosecutors and restructure the bodies governing magistrates. The vote has become a high-stakes political test for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, with supporters arguing the reform will modernize an inefficient system and critics warning it could weaken judicial independence and democratic checks and balances. While Meloni is unlikely to resign if voters reject her reform proposal, a defeat could destabilize one of Italy's most stable governments in recent decades. That same weekend, France will hold the second round of nationwide municipal elections, following a first-round vote that highlighted strong gains by both the far right and the far left in several cities. Although local in focus, these runoffs provide an early indicator of party strength and alliances ahead of the pivotal 2027 presidential election. Denmark will hold an early general election March 24 to choose all 179 members of parliament, with Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen seeking a third term. The campaign has been shaped by debates over rising living costs, a proposed wealth tax and tensions with the United States over the future of Greenland.
The Iran conflict continues. The Iran conflict will continue with additional Israeli and U.S. attacks against Iran and Iranian retaliation against assets throughout the region, including in Gulf Cooperation Council countries, resulting in persistent travel, commercial and maritime shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. If Israel refrains from additional attacks against key Iranian energy infrastructure, like its March 18 attack against South Pars gas field, there could be a de-escalation of attacks on major GCC energy infrastructure that risk long-term damage. Additional Israeli attacks on key energy infrastructure would likely trigger a strong Iranian response against critical GCC oil and gas infrastructure that could cause long-term damage to production capabilities, especially if Iran uses cluster munitions. Meanwhile, additional U.S. military assets will likely arrive in the Middle East from Asia, including Marines and an amphibious ready group, giving the United States more operational flexibility if Trump decides on a ground operation in Iran.
Ukraine seeks to restart U.S.-brokered talks amid a diplomatic pause. A Ukrainian delegation is traveling to the United States for March 21 talks aimed at restarting stalled negotiations with Russia as Kyiv seeks to regain momentum in a peace process disrupted by the war in Iran. The discussions are expected to focus on setting a timeline for the next trilateral round with Moscow, as well as advancing work on ceasefire terms, security guarantees and postwar reconstruction. Ukrainian negotiators are also expected to raise a potential drone cooperation deal, leveraging Kyiv's battle-tested capabilities in interceptors, sea drones and deep-strike systems to secure greater U.S. support. Russia will not participate in the Washington meeting, though Kremlin officials signaled willingness to resume the trilateral format later. The pause in talks has largely stemmed from international attention shifting to the Iran conflict. Russian strikes and offensive operations have meanwhile increased across multiple fronts, suggesting Moscow's spring campaign may be underway. At the same time, Kyiv faces mounting resource constraints and uncertainty over Western military support, and has warned that easing sanctions on Russian energy could strengthen Moscow's war effort. The upcoming U.S.-Ukraine talks will test whether Washington can reestablish a viable diplomatic track or whether negotiations remain vulnerable to external shocks and shifting strategic priorities.
Recommended Reading
Gulf Arab States, Shaken by Iran War, Plan Economic Pivot
Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will compel Gulf Cooperation Council states to invest in alternative trade routes and more resilient physical infrastructure.
Malaysia's Ballooning Fuel Subsidy Costs Will Test the Government's Reform Agenda
While fuel subsidies have so far cushioned the impact, if the Iran-related energy disruptions persist, the government may have to sacrifice economic reforms to preserve political support before the next election.
Will Rwanda Withdraw Troops From Northern Mozambique?
Rwanda is unlikely to withdraw all its troops from Cabo Delgado in the short term, but a partial drawdown is possible if the EU doesn't approve fresh funding, which would degrade Mozambique's capacity to counter jihadist militants in the gas-rich region.
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