A protracted increase in tensions between Somalia's federal government and the state of Puntland over changes to the Somali Constitution will likely widen the rift between Somalia and Ethiopia and could enable al Shabab to expand its jihadist activity. On March 30, Somalia's bicameral federal parliament approved changes to the first four revised chapters of the country's 15-chapter provisional constitution, with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signing off on the changes on March 31. The revisions strengthen the president's authority and sanction the adoption of direct universal suffrage, among other changes. However, the state of Puntland responded by withdrawing its recognition of the federal government on March 31, claiming that Mogadishu had not appropriately consulted its government about the changes. Puntland added that it would act independently from the federal government until the Somali public approves the constitutional changes in a nationwide referendum. Ethiopian State Minister for Foreign Affairs Mesganu Arga subsequently received a senior ministerial delegation from Puntland on April 3, prompting Somalia's federal government to order the departure of Ethiopia's ambassador to Mogadishu, as well as the closure of Ethiopia's consulates in Puntland and Somaliland, citing Addis Ababa's interference in Somalia's domestic affairs. 

• The constitutional changes notably allow the president to appoint and dismiss the prime minister. They also endorse the transition toward a presidential system in which the president is elected through direct universal suffrage, as well as unify the calendar for local, regional and federal elections. 

Somalia's constitutional changes were one of Mohamud's key pledges during his presidential campaign and could help consolidate the Somali state as the government looks to depart from clan-based institutions set up during the Somali civil war. During the campaign for Somalia's May 2022 presidential election, Mohamud pledged to finalize the country's provisional constitution, which has been under near-constant review since its approval in 2012. Following his election for a second term, Mohamud pressed forward with this pledge by convening several meetings of the country's National Consultative Council, or NCC, which regroups leaders of the federal government and federal member states, to secure a consensus regarding changes to Somalia's institutions and electoral laws. In May 2023, the NCC agreed to transition Somalia's electoral system from clan-based voting to direct universal suffrage, marking a profound shift in the structure of Somali institutions. This shift comes as Mohamud looks to consolidate Somalia's historically weak state institutions and strengthen lawmakers' accountability to the public by curtailing the powers of clan-based power brokers. However, Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni boycotted the NCC amid disagreements regarding the balance of power between the federal and state governments and did not sign the May 2023 agreement, which is the source of the latest dispute with the federal government. 

• Somalia's clan-based electoral system, also known as the "4.5" system, was formalized in 2000 as a stop-gap mechanism to manage political representation during the Somali civil war. The system grants each of the country's main four clans 20% of seats in parliament, with the remaining seats granted to smaller clans.

Amid tensions with the federal government, Puntland will likely expand its outreach to Ethiopia, which will deepen the rift between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa and complicate any resolution of the two countries' dispute surrounding Ethiopia's maritime deal with Somaliland. Puntland's dispute with the federal government comes as the state of Somaliland — which formally declared independence from Somalia in 1991 — struck a deal in January with neighboring Ethiopia that paves the way for Addis Ababa to recognize the breakaway region's independence. The move triggered harsh condemnations from Mogadishu, with Mohamud claiming that it was an act of aggression from Addis Ababa and violated Somalia's sovereignty. While Kenyan President William Ruto has been leading mediation efforts to de-escalate tensions, Somalia's expulsion of Ethiopia's ambassador on April 4 highlights the continued deterioration of bilateral relations. Amid tensions with the federal government, Puntland is thus likely to expand its outreach to Ethiopia in the hope of extracting concessions from Mogadishu regarding the balance of power between states and the federal government. Ethiopia will likely welcome Puntland's outreach, as these ties could help the landlocked country further diversify its maritime access while expanding security cooperation against a potential resurgence of al Shabaab. However, Ethiopia's strengthening of ties with Puntland would likely deepen the country's rift with Somalia and result in Mohamud's government leaning further into its rapidly expanding defense cooperation with external partners, which aims to establish some deterrence vis-a-vis Ethiopia. 

• In early April, Kenya proposed a regional maritime treaty that would govern how landlocked countries can access ports on commercial terms to de-escalate tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia. However, the treaty will prove politically challenging for Mohamud to accept given that it would compel Somalia to grant Ethiopia maritime access despite the Somali public's resentment and high mistrust of Ethiopia. 
• Amid tensions with Ethiopia and Somaliland, Somalia approved a 10-year defense and economic cooperation agreement with Turkey on Feb. 22. Under the agreement, Ankara will train and equip Somalia's navy, and the Turkish navy will be able to deploy naval assets in Somalia's territorial waters, which under international law include Somaliland's waters. 

While Puntland is unlikely to formally declare independence in the short term, tensions will likely rise between the northern state and the federal government, which could result in armed clashes. Due to past disputes with Mohamud regarding institutional reforms, Puntland announced in January 2023 that it would conduct its affairs independently from the federal government, but the state did not declare formal independence. Given that the latest dispute is a continuation of the 2023 spat, the state appears likely to follow its previous pattern by refraining from formally declaring independence, at least in the short term. However, the severe logistical and security challenges involved in organizing the nationwide referendum that Puntland demands will likely result in a protracted dispute between the state and the federal government. For Mohamud, a protracted dispute with Puntland would threaten to entrench the status quo and see the state drift further away from Mogadishu's orbit. Furthermore, a lengthy dispute would set a precedent for other federal states to withdraw their recognition from the federal government in the event of institutional disagreements, which would threaten Somalia's territorial integrity in the medium and long term. Given that Mohamud appears unwilling to compromise on his plans to finalize Somalia's Constitution, the federal government will likely pressure Puntland politically and economically to back down from its current position instead of granting a nationwide referendum, at least in the short term. Tensions between the federal government and Puntland are thus likely to increase in the coming months, which could result in localized clashes between Puntland's military forces and associated clan militias against federal government troops. However, these clashes would likely be localized and limited in scope at first and would not portend an imminent return to a full-blown civil war. 

• Puntland is Somalia's northernmost and wealthiest state and is strategically located at the tip of the Horn of Africa near the Bab el-Mandeb strait. This advantageous location led Puntland to become a hotbed for piracy activity at the turn of the 2010s. 
• Puntland justified its January 2023 decision to act independently from the federal government by referring to Article 142 of Somalia's provisional constitution, which allows the country's federal member states to act according to their constitutions until the finalization of the federal constitution. 

Should tensions between Puntland and the federal government devolve into armed clashes, this would create space for al Qaeda affiliate al Shabaab to expand attacks both within and beyond Somalia. Following his reelection, Mohamud launched Operation Black Lion, which targeted al Shabaab militants in central and southern Somalia and successfully recaptured over 100 localities from the group. However, the federal government paused the operation's second phase in March amid reports of internal disputes over resources and a failure to secure alliances with local clan militias. The pause followed several setbacks against al Shabaab since the start of the year, as the group recaptured several localities in central Somalia and successfully launched a string of deadly attacks in Mogadishu. Should tensions between the federal government and Puntland escalate into armed clashes, Mohamud would likely be compelled to redirect military resources away from the fight against al Shabaab. This would provide further leeway for the group to operate and help it consolidate control over central and southern Somalia, especially given that the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia, or ATMIS, is set to complete its departure from the country by December. Therefore, clashes between Puntland and the federal government would not only risk further high-profile attacks in Mogadishu but could also see the group expand cross-border operations against Ethiopia and Kenya. 

• On Feb. 10, a Somali soldier opened fire on military personnel at Mogadishu's General Gordon Military Base, killing at least nine military personnel, including four UAE military personnel and one Bahraini officer. Al Shabaab claimed the attack, raising questions over the Somali military's vetting process given that the perpetrator was allegedly a former member of al Shabaab. 
• ATMIS, which comprises troops from Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda, completed the second phase of its drawdown in January. 
• On March 24, the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission reported the formation of al Shabaab-linked cells in the Bale zone of the country's Oromia region. This comes after al Shabaab vowed to wage war against the Ethiopian state following the announcement of Addis Ababa's maritime port deal with Somalia's breakaway region of Somaliland in January. 
• In addition to providing an opportunity for al Shabaab to expand attacks, clashes between Puntland security forces and the federal government would risk compelling the northern state to divert resources away from counter-piracy activity, which would risk fueling the recent resurgence in pirate attacks off the coast of Somalia.