Tunisia Angles for More European Aid as Migrants Travel North

(Photo by johan10/Getty Images)

Tunisian dinar.

Inflows of migrants on their way to Europe are straining Tunisia's resources, but the government's refusal to make economic reforms will likely prevent Tunisia from receiving more funds from the European Union, leaving Tunisia reliant on bilateral relationships for aid. On Dec. 9, Tunisia's National Guard stated that it had intercepted 70,000 migrants trying to cross the Mediterranean Sea to Europe in 2023, twice the number from 2022, with foreigners comprising 78% of those intercepted. This data comes as the Tunisian National Guard and law enforcement have been cracking down on migrants to prevent them from moving north to Europe, primarily through the central Mediterranean route to Italy. Despite these efforts, in 2023 the European Agency for the Management of Operational Cooperation at the External Borders recorded the highest number of irregular migrant crossings to the European Union since 2016. Many of these migrants travel through Tunisia from sub-Saharan Africa to escape war and economic turmoil, especially in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa. Tunisia is struggling to cope with these increased migration flows amid an already acute economic crisis, as incoming asylum seekers have overwhelmed the capacity of the two migration offices in Tunis and Zarzis, and the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees' shelters in the country are at capacity. In September, thousands of asylum seekers were bused out of Sfax's city center to other locations, including Al Amra.

Migrants made more than 152,000 crossings from Tunisia through the central Mediterranean route from January to November, according to the European Agency for the Management of Operational Cooperation at the External Borders.
At least 140,000 migrants arrived in Italy from January to October, with 91% estimated to have come through Tunisia. The number of migrants who travel to Italy by sea has nearly doubled since 2022.
The number of Sudanese refugees in Tunisia has increased by more than 1,200% in 2023 from the previous year due to displacement from the war in Sudan that began in April. However, some of the migrants on their way to Europe are Tunisians fleeing their country's economic crisis.
On Nov. 24, police in Al Amra confiscated and destroyed boats that asylum seekers planned to use to cross the Mediterranean Sea into Europe and used tear gas against the migrants after they reportedly threw stones at police.
From Sept. 18-20, the Tunisian National Guard intercepted approximately 100 migrants at sea and expelled them to the Tunisia-Algeria border, which was a departure from the previous practice of releasing them back into Tunisia, according to Human Rights Watch.

The European Union signed a memorandum of understanding with Tunisia in July to strengthen the country's economy and improve its ability to stem the flow of migrants to Europe, but Tunisia's refusal to make economic reforms is preventing the bloc from disbursing much of the promised aid. Tunisia's economy has floundered for almost a decade after terrorist attacks in 2015 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 shrank the country's tourism industry. Compounding the issue, the United States cut economic and military funding to Tunisia by almost half in 2022 over the Tunisian government's authoritarian policies and human rights abuses, and a severe ongoing drought has reduced Tunisia's agricultural exports. As a result, the Tunisian economy has struggled to pay for imports, experienced shortages of basic goods, and has had low foreign exchange reserves amid significant spending, with external borrowing needs estimated at around $5 billion for 2023. To help strengthen Tunisia's economy, the government signed a controversial memorandum of understanding with the European Union worth more than 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) in July. The agreement allocated 105 million euros to combat irregular migration, an additional 150 million euros for direct budgetary support, and more than 900 million euros in funds conditioned on Tunisia reaching an agreement with the International Monetary Fund for a bailout. However, Tunisia has failed to reach a deal with the IMF due to Tunisian President Kais Saied's refusal to implement the fund's required austerity measures, which means much of the aid promised by the European Union remains frozen.

In April, Saied rejected a $1.9 billion loan from the IMF that would have required Tunisia to balance its budget and restore investor confidence to improve capital inflows. Saied called the conditions of the loan "diktats" and argued that the austerity measures would increase poverty.
In October, Saied returned 60 million euros that were part of a larger 127 million euro tranche of the EU agreement after accusing the European Union of not following through with financial commitments to curb migration. He proceeded to say that Tunisia "accepts co-operation but not charity." Saied has also balked at the European perception that Tunisia is a border guard but reiterated Tunisian interest in strategic partnerships.
Despite a lack of progress on reforms and Tunisia's mixed messages, the European Union announced on Dec. 20 that it would send 150 million euros in direct financial transfer to aid Tunisia's economic recovery, and Saied will likely accept these funds.
The European Union will likely propose similar agreements to other North African countries, but since many of these countries are as reluctant to implement economic reforms as Tunisia, such agreements may become similarly deadlocked.

To compensate for the stalled deal with the European Union, Tunisia will likely push for bilateral deals with European countries. A large portion of the funds from the EU-Tunisia memorandum of understanding will likely remain deadlocked over Tunisia's refusal to reach a deal with the IMF. As a result, Saied will need alternative funding sources to prevent default. To meet this need, Saied will likely try to pressure European countries into reaching bilateral deals in return for Tunisia's continued efforts to limit migration. Some EU members will resist making deals with Tunisia due to concerns about the country's fiscal policies, human rights abuses toward migrants and the political opposition, and unreliability as a partner after mixed signals in October. However, European countries' willingness to reach such deals may increase over time as migration from Tunisia to Europe continues to rise amid ongoing displacement in sub-Saharan Africa due to war and poor economic conditions. Countries that prioritize curbing migration to Europe, such as Italy and Spain, will be more likely to partner with Tunisia through bilateral agreements. These agreements will likely offer incentives that benefit Tunisian citizens, such as job training and the acceptance of some skilled Tunisian migrants.

Italy and Spain supported the July EU deal, with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni calling the deal "a true partnership." However, other European countries including Germany have criticized the deal. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock wrote in an Aug. 2 letter, "Democracy, human rights and the rule of law must guide us in our cooperation — something that was not given suitable consideration, in the agreement with Tunisia."
In October, Italy and Tunisia reached a bilateral agreement for Italy to take in 4,000 "qualified" Tunisian workers to improve regular migration between the two countries. Additional provisions in the agreement included Italian support to impede smugglers from traversing the Mediterranean and creating employment opportunities for Tunisian youth.
Tunisia may also turn to Gulf states for aid, but these countries will be more reluctant than European states to provide aid without conditions of macroeconomic reform.