Policy disputes at home and competition with China will hinder the United States’ ability to assert itself as the world leader in the fight against climate change. On April 22-23, the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden hosted a virtual climate summit with 40 world leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. During the first day of meetings and presentations, several countries unveiled ambitious climate targets, including a new U.S. pledge to reduce carbon emissions by up to 52% from 2005 levels by 2030. The second day focused more on how to implement those changes, beginning with a speech made by U.S. billionaire Bill Gates in which he called on the private sector to turn their words into action by investing in climate-focused innovation. 

Prior to the summit, China and the United States issued a joint statement emphasizing similar goals and the potential for cooperation. But despite this rhetoric, the two global powers will compete over commercial and strategic access to technologies underpinning the global transition to renewable energy. Since taking office in January, the Biden administration has repeatedly emphasized the need for a government- and defense-wide approach to combat the climate crisis, which it sees as a top national security threat. This approach, however, will put the United States at odds with China as both countries seek to secure a wide variety of new strategic minerals and manufacturing supply chains to support green initiatives and industries. Washington will continue to seek to secure access to strategic raw materials, including somewhere China currently holds the majority of the world’s mining and refining capacity. U.S. domestic manufacturing will also need to expand in order to secure green energy supply chains as part of a broader energy security strategy.

• On April 22, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines stated that climate change must be “at the center of a country's national security and foreign policy” in order to not only monitor the threat, but ensure that policymakers understand the implications. 
• The Biden administration has emphasized a number of strategic elements crucial to electric vehicles and renewable supply chains (including nickel, cobalt, rare earth elements and lithium). This will see continued ongoing cooperation with U.S. allies, especially resource-rich Canada and Australia. 
• Biden’s $2 trillion American Jobs Plan allots $590 billion to improve, expand and modernize domestic manufacturing across the board. The proposed infrastructure package allots $621 billion to transportation improvements as well, including $174 billion to expand electric vehicle infrastructure, including the construction of 500,000 charging stations across the United States.

Deep divisions within the U.S. political system, combined with the highly politicized nature of climate issues in the United States, will also make it difficult for the Biden administration to enact its ambitious policy initiatives. The White House will continue to pursue aggressive action on climate issues throughout the next year, with regulations that can be easily enacted through executive orders (like emissions standards) most likely. But with the U.S. Congress sharply divided, securing the legislative approval needed to unlock federal funding for U.S. climate policies will prove to be an especially tall order. This means the private sector will continue to largely drive the adoption of new green technologies, especially if political disputes in Washington continue to thwart U.S. action. 

• During the last four years, private companies across the world have increased consideration and awareness of the costs of climate change in both their risk planning and investments. 
• On April 21, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen committed to directing public investment into the necessary sectors in a speech to the Institute of International Finance. 
• Participation of large U.S. banks in the Net-Zero Banking Alliance will be an important metric to track in terms of the availability of private capital for climate projects.