Saudi Arabia appears ready to soften its blockade against Qatar to improve its relationship with the incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Joe Biden. White House senior adviser Jared Kushner is scheduled to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the Saudi city of Neom this week, followed by a meeting with Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, the emir of Qatar. The talks with the crown prince will reportedly be aimed at resolving the three-year Saudi blockade on Qatar, as well as normalizing Saudi-Israeli ties and potential coordination with Iran. But Saudi Arabia is more interested in ensuring its good standing with the incoming Biden White House than in maintaining its close relationship with the lame-duck administration. Riyadh is thus most likely to give ground on the Qatar blockade, which Biden’s foreign policy team has also expressed concerns about.

Over the past four years, U.S. President Donald Trump’s close diplomatic relationship with Riyadh has helped shield the kingdom from growing calls in Congress to end the blockade in Qatar, where the United States hosts a large airbase. Trump, in fact, briefly encouraged the blockade early in his presidency in 2017, as his administration sought to reshape the Middle East’s alliances and strategic balances by leaning on its close relationships with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Biden’s ideological and strategic calculus, however, varies widely from that of his predecessor, as reflected by his cabinet picks. His nomination of Antony Blinken to the secretary of state, in particular, has further signaled Biden’s intent to return to a more multilateral and diplomatic approach to the Middle East, with Blinken promising a strategic review of Saudi-U.S. ties upon taking office in January.

Saudi Arabia is recalculating its regional strategies in Qatar and elsewhere in an effort to offset increased U.S. pressure from the Biden White House and U.S. legislators. Offering concessions, such as easing travel, trade, and/or diplomatic restrictions on Qatar, would help Riyadh start off on the right foot with the Biden administration. It would also complement Saudi Arabia’s efforts in Yemen, where Riyadh is attempting to draw down its involvement for fear that the Biden administration will increase pressure on ending the country’s ongoing civil war.

• The blockade was part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s early hawkish strategies meant to secure Saudi interests regionwide, which have largely ended up in stalemates or setbacks in Yemen, Qatar and Iran.
• To offset the risks created by these stalemates, Saudi Arabia has recently shifted toward more traditional, lower-risk approaches to its regional rivals. This has included signaling a willingness to make concessions in the Yemen conflict and toning down its aggressive anti-Iran strategy. 

Any weakening of the blockade, however, would further strain regional coordination between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Abu Dhabi and Riyadh have worked together in Qatar, Yemen and Iran, as well as in the broader fight against the Muslim Brotherhood. But the two countries’ national interests have created divergences in their strategies. The Qatar blockade, in particular, is key to the United Arab Emirates’ goal of having Doha downgrade its relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood, which Abu Dhabi perceives as an ideological threat. Saudi Arabia, however, has focused less on the Muslim Brotherhood regionally, cooperating instead with its Yemeni chapter, al-Islah, to achieve Riyadh’s broader anti-Iran and anti-Houthi goals. A loosening of Saudi-Emirati cooperation could further cause the United Arab Emirates to draw down from anti-Houthi operations in Yemen. Abu Dhabi may also boost support to its Yemeni proxy, the secessionist Southern Transitional Council, which is attempting to claim territory and influence from the Saudi-backed government of President Mansoor Hadi.