The political and social threads that have kept Lebanon from entering another civil war are quickly fraying, with rival factions now struggling to contain violence amid the country’s deepening economic and humanitarian crises. On Aug. 27, clashes between supporters of the Sunni-dominated Future Movement party and the Iran-backed, Shiite-dominated militant group and political party Hezbollah broke out outside of Beirut, killing two and forcing the army to intervene. The skirmish erupted after Hezbollah supporters reportedly tried to unveil a banner marking the Shiite Ashoura religious holiday in a traditionally Sunni area. Days later on Aug. 31, the Shiite, Sunni and Maronite political parties in Lebanon's parliament settled on Mustapha Adib, a former diplomat with little political following, to replace former Prime Minister Hassan Diab, who stepped down in the wake of the Aug. 4 Beirut explosion.

The return of violent skirmishes risks weakening the fragile security detente and the political pact between Lebanon’s major armed sectarian factions. Leaders from both Hezbollah and the Future Movement were reportedly involved in deescalating the Aug. 27 clash, meaning the fighting likely began organically on the streets rather than at the hands of higher-ups. But with their supporters more willing to engage in fighting, Lebanon’s political leaders could increasingly find themselves pulled toward conflict as well. 

• Rival Lebanese factions signed the Doha Agreement in 2008, ending an 18-month political crisis that culminated in a series of nationwide skirmishes between the Future Movement and Hezbollah. Since then, both sides have largely adhered to the pact, constraining their rivalry to political debates rather than street violence.

In recent weeks, leaders in both Sunni and Christian communities have also directly criticized the Lebanese government, as well as factions like Hezbollah, violating a post-war taboo that kept sectarian religion leaders largely out of politics.

• Sunni Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul Latif called for early elections on Aug. 19, signaling his lack of confidence in the legislators and their parties elected in 2018. More broadly, Latif has also voiced increasing concern about Lebanon’s increasingly dire humanitarian situation.
• On July 12, Christian Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rai criticized Hezbollah’s participation in regional conflicts. In a recent sermon, al-Rai also criticized the actions of Lebanese political parties for helping isolate Lebanon just when it needed international aid the most. 

Lebanon’s new prime minister also lacks the political power and public support to resolve the core economic and political problems driving social tensions, increasing the risk for more violent skirmishes. Even with widespread backing across Lebanon’s sectarian groups, Adib is unlikely to rally the support to pass and implement the sweeping reforms needed to address Lebanon's deteriorating economic situation and increasingly unstable security environment. 

• The nonsectarian protest movement in Beirut has already rejected Adib’s new government, and continues to push for a major overhaul of Lebanon’s sectarian system. 
• Inflation in Lebanon is nearing a new all-time high, hitting over 112 percent in July. The country is also unlikely to receive the amount of international aid needed to sufficiently prop up its economy, exacerbating social tensions.
• With further violence likely, sectarian parties will increasingly have to consider other means to offset growing social and political pressure, including early elections and further reforms.