Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's shock resignation risks returning Japan to a cycle of short-lived administrations, which is unlikely to yield major shifts in domestic or foreign policy. On Aug. 28, after weeks of speculation over his health, Abe announced that he will be resigning from his post once the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) chooses a replacement. In addition to the LDP, Abe himself will also partially determine the succession process, meaning his successor will adhere to the party's long-term policy objectives. But even if secure in their post, Japan's next prime minister will find it difficult to muster the level of power Abe has accrued over his nearly eight years in office and tight control over the Japanese government, which enabled him to go head-to-head with key counterparts abroad. Abe's personal political clout also outmatched that of previous political leaders, which allowed him to bypass internal LDP factions and interest groups to ram through changes. 

Potential Successors

Abe's sudden resignation has given the LDP little time to reach consensus around a successor, meaning Japan's next prime minister may only serve in an interim capacity as the party works out its long-term plans. The structure of the LDP's leadership election will help determine which successors hold the advantage, which is reportedly being considered for Sept. 15, with two options available: either a standard vote in which regional LDP party officials are allowed to participate, or a limited vote in which only sitting LDP lawmakers decide, justified by COVID-19 risks.

• If limited to lawmakers, whoever Abe appoints his successor will enjoy a major advantage given the outgoing prime minister's clout. A limited election would see Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga hold a strong position due to his entrenched role in Abe's administration and in national-level politics. Abe isn't guaranteed to choose Suga, however, as their relationship has soured over the past year. 
• An election open to the broader LDP nationwide would favor former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba and LDP policy chief Fumio Kishida, both more popular with the general rank-and-file than with lawmakers. Ishiba has been a critic of “Abenomics,” leveling blame on Abe's economic policies for failing to benefit rural areas and instead benefiting major exporters with cheap yen and monetary easing. Kishida has also called for higher public works spending and an end to the ultra-low interest rates that have hurt regional banks.
• None of the major contenders for the prime ministerial post are likely to place a strong emphasis on forwarding constitutional reforms to eliminate the pacifist provision that has partly held Japan back from using its military as a foreign policy tool. The popularity of this position among the LDP grassroots means that if the vote is extended to the broader party, several candidates might rise to capture this, including Katsunobu Kato, Toshimitsu Motegi and Tomomi Inada, among others. Regardless, Japan is already adapting its military in spite of the constitutional limits in order to more fully adapt to China's military rise.
• Japan's young environment minister, Shinjiro Koizumi, is another contender, garnering support from 8.4 percent of respondents in a Kyodo News poll, but he lacks overall backing from within the LDP leadership. Defense minister Taro Kono also holds a strong position among ruling party factions, but has a maverick approach to leadership that has given many lawmakers pause. 

Foreign Policy Implications

Decisions on broader issues related to China's regional rise and Japan's alliance with the United States will be slow-moving in the post-Abe era. Abe's successor will initially be tasked with digging Japan out of its dire COVID-19-related economic situation. But broader challenges also loom around U.S. relations, China's rise and regional tensions with South Korea. Geopolitical factors might raise pressure on the party to cohere more fully around a strong leader to match key regional players such as China, where President Xi Jinping has effectively taken on a lifetime role as leader, and Russia, where President Vladimir Putin remains deeply entrenched.

• In terms of U.S. outreach, Abe's successor will need to find their footing after taking power and will not possess the close, longstanding working relationship Abe enjoyed with the White House, which helped to allay trade pressure and refocus on long-term strategic engagement.
• Abe's successor will also need to balance the need to counter China's growing regional influence against the risk of unnecessary confrontation with Beijing — a goal Abe had advanced in 2018 with the first official visit to China in seven years. 
• In terms of outreach to South Korea, Abe's exit provides an opportunity for a policy reset in the two countries' acrimonious trade war. But a resolution will still depend on Seoul's policies towards wartime issues.