In Syria, the Specter of an Expanded U.S. Mission Reemerges

A skirmish in northeast Syria indicates the United States remains willing to respond with proportional force to increased harassment from President Bashar al-Assad's regime, as Damascus and its Russian allies seek ways to incentivize the withdrawal of U.S. troops. On Aug. 17, U.S. forces reportedly engaged with Syrian troops at a Syrian-run checkpoint near the town of Qamishli in the country's far northeast. The U.S. military is investigating the cause of the skirmish, though the engagement happened amid escalating tensions between Syrian forces and the remaining U.S. patrols in the country following the White House's repeated attempts to reduce its military presence.

The Current Dynamic

Advances against Turkey in Idlib province, combined with a reduced U.S. presence, have emboldened Syrian efforts to undermine Washington's influence and ability to guarantee security to its local allies, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In addition to basic harassment of U.S. forces, some Syrian checkpoints have also attempted to interdict or slow down U.S. forces moving through the area.

After the United States began withdrawing troops from Syria in October 2019, Syrian and Russian forces rushed into the northeast to both block Turkish advances, as well as regain the territory Damascus abandoned in the early part of the civil war. Since then, Russian and Syrian forces have taken up positions where U.S. forces previously had free range to carry out operations against the Islamic State.
Another episode of harassment prompted a similar clash between U.S. and Syrian forces near Qamashili in February. But in both this latest skirmish and the February clash, U.S. forces demonstrated restraint and did not escalate beyond the immediate flashpoint, marking a sharp contrast to the major Syrian-Russia-U.S. skirmish in February 2018.

The Potential for Change

The possible election of a new U.S. administration in November may portend an expanded American mission in Syria that takes a more confrontational stance against al-Assad's government and its Russian and Iranian backers. The United States recently enforced tougher sanctions against Syria to nudge Damascus back to the negotiating table with the Syrian opposition. The current administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, however, remains committed to a limited Syrian mission focused primarily on fending off the Islamic State and protecting energy resources in the country. Democratic candidate Joe Biden, by contrast, has shown he'd also be more willing to diplomatically confront and pressure al-Assad's regime to finally end the country's 11-year-long civil war. A potential Biden presidency would also be unlikely to pull out of Syria without accomplishing Washington's primary goal of denying the Islamic State a base.

With a campaign strategy focused on securing the moderate vote, Biden's foreign policy platform has reflected a return to more traditional, interventionist U.S. diplomacy, compared with Trump's notably isolationist and unilateral approach over the past four years.
In May, Biden's foreign policy advisor said that the United States should not withdraw from Syria without concessions from the al-Assad regime. Joe Biden also criticized Trump's attempted withdrawal from the country in October 2019. And as vice president in 2016, Joe Biden suggested that there might be a military, rather than purely political, solution to the civil war.