Intensifying protests across Belarus following the disputed Aug. 9 presidential election present a significant threat to President Alexander Lukashenko, as escalatory actions by opposition leaders could test the loyalty of his security forces while contouring international responses to the political crisis. Lukashenko's main challenger Svetlana Tikhanovskaya and her supporters have rejected the official preliminary results, which show an 80 percent victory for Lukashenko, citing widespread signs of election interference. Violent protests erupted in at least 33 cities across Belarus last night, though security forces managed to maintain relative control during what is anticipated to be just the start of a larger electoral crisis in the country. With over 3,000 detained, and at least one protester killed and many more wounded, the crackdown on the first night of protests was significant. Continued protests, however, will likely stretch security forces' ability and willingness to aggressively contain the unrest.

Opposition leaders are hoping to shape the initial uproar over the election results into persistent and widespread protest action. This could escalate violence at first, though a prolonged and emboldened protest movement may also eventually break security forces' resolve to crack down on civilians. Security forces laid down their shields and hugged protesters in Kobrino, and played soccer with demonstrators in Novopolotsk. Tikhanovskaya's campaign has called for additional protest actions and a national labor strike. Protests in the capital Minsk and other cities are set to resume tonight, and followers have been advised to carry protective gear, first aid kits and to target or block vehicles of security forces. The call for a national strike — which follows a number of strikes initiated on Aug. 10 at major steel, vehicle and fertilizer manufacturers across Belarus — would add an economic pressure point for Lukashenko's government to meet protesters' demands, in addition to the security pressure point afforded by the street demonstrations.

The international response to the election outcome and subsequent protest violence has demonstrated a clear divide between the East and West, which could increase the risk for both Russian intervention and European sanctions. Countries such as Russia, China and Kazakhstan have all congratulated Lukashenko for his election victory, while several large European countries such as Poland and Germany have openly condemned the apparent electoral irregularities, which they say undermine the legitimacy of Lukashenko's official victory. 

• Although Lukashenko had tried to improve his ties with Belarus's Western neighbors in the past, his crackdown on opposition activity before the election had already led to criticism in Europe. Lukashenko himself has also accused Poland, Czechia and the United Kingdom of leading the opposition protests, a stance that can further widen the divide between them as the crisis continues. Violence against opposition protests could also elicit a reaction from the European Union, which may reimpose economic sanctions against Belarus over the government's human rights infringements. 
• Russia, on the other hand, appears to be condoning Lukashenko's actions for now. Moscow's push for deeper political and economic integration has strained its relationship with Minsk over the past year. But Lukashenko's rule still serves Russia's interests better than a potential pivot to an openly pro-Western government under Tikhanovskaya. Russia has many ways to intervene and influence the evolving situation in Belarus (both overtly and covertly). And depending on how protests and crackdowns unfold, Moscow may decide to deploy those tools to ensure against such an opposition takeover.