Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi is signaling that his new government will keep powerful Iran-backed militias in the country in check after conducting a raid against Kataib Hezbollah, the group linked to numerous attempted attacks against U.S. forces over the past year. On the evening of June 25, Iraqi security forces raided a building belonging to the Iran-backed group, which resulted in the arrests of several Kataib Hezbollah leaders and members, as well as the seizure of multiple rockets. In retaliation, militia members threatened to overrun Iraq’s Counter Terrorism Service building where the detained Kataib Hezbollah members were being held, placing Baghdad’s surrounding Green Zone under lockdown. Overnight negotiations between Kataib Hezbollah leaders and the Iraqi government have since resulted in the release of most of the militia members arrested during the raid.
The government’s willingness to quickly deescalate the situation indicates Baghdad’s desire to assert its authority over Iran-backed militias, while still being careful not to trigger a wider war. In doing so, al-Kadhimi is fulfilling his promise to rein in militias in the country that don’t always fall under the government’s command and control. But his government’s move to defuse tensions by releasing militia members just hours after arresting them indicates Baghdad also wants to avoid spurring a larger conflict with Iran’s powerful proxies in the country.
If Kataib Hezbollah and its allies ignore this warning and continue rocket strikes against U.S.-affiliated targets, or directly attack Iraqi security forces, it will worsen Iraq’s already tenuous security situation, opening the door for a slow resurgence of the Islamic State. Militias have so far vowed revenge, with a spokesman from Kataib Hezbollah threatening al Kadhimi with "torture" in retribution for both the raid, as well as the Iraqi government’s involvement in the U.S. killing of Kataib Hezbollah’s leader in January.
Conversely, a reduction in militia attacks against U.S. forces and installations would indicate the return of some internal stability for Western and Iraqi troops and businesses. Baghdad’s economic and security ties to both Washington and Tehran have made it a major proxy battleground for U.S.-Iran tensions. The frequency of Iran-backed militia attacks on Iraqi bases housing U.S. forces over the past year has fueled calls for Baghdad to take stronger action against militia groups, and also factored into the White House’s intent to begin drawing down its military presence in the country, which Washington recently reaffirmed in strategic-level talks with Baghdad in mid-June.
