A barrage of rockets killed two American soldiers and one British servicemember while injuring at least 11 more individuals at Taji base in Iraq, just north of Baghdad. No group has claimed credit for the attack, but a U.S. military source implicitly blamed Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. Initial unconfirmed reports indicate the U.S. military responded with airstrikes directed against Iranian-backed Iraqi targets along the Iraq-Syria border.

Why It Matters

The killing of American troops significantly raises the likelihood of a further military escalation within Iraq, or potentially even Iran, in the coming days. The last rocket attack that killed an American citizen in Iraq was conducted in December by an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia. That attack led to an escalation that culminated with the targeted killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani and an Iranian missile attack on bases housing U.S. forces in Iraq. A similar escalation could once again put the U.S. and Iran on the brink of war, especially if the United States chooses to strike targets in Iran, which could include nuclear sites. Likewise, U.S. airstrikes in Iraq could also stir up additional anti-American sentiment in Iraq and put more pressure on the Iraqi government to remove U.S. forces from the country.

Background

Iran provides financial, military and political support to a number of militias in Iraq that comprise a critical part of Iran's asymmetric offensive capabilities while giving Iran some plausible deniability regarding a direct connection. Over the past year, the United States has begun to directly target these militias via kinetic action as well as via financial sanctions. The United States ultimately blames Iran for the actions of these militias, but the tit-for-tat dynamic between the United States and these militias has its own potential cycle of escalation aside from the already tense U.S.-Iran dynamic.