What Happened

Exit polls show that no single party has emerged as the dominant party in parliament among the 21 political parties competing in Peru's Jan. 26 special legislative elections. Popular Action came closest to garnering a significant mandate. A centrist party popular in the 1980s, it took somewhere between 10.1 percent and 11.8 percent of the vote, according to exit polls and unofficial results, giving it more clout than it has enjoyed in more than 40 years. The once-obscure Agricultural People's Front of Peru party followed with 8.9 percent. But rather than any ringing endorsement of the two parties' policies, their victories likely reflect disillusionment with the parties that dominated Peru's recent governments. Opposition party Popular Force lost its once-dominant position, for example, falling from 36 percent of the vote in 2016 to 7 percent in 2020, dropping it to the sixth-largest party in parliament.

Why It Matters 

Although fragmented and comprised of an unusual and unpredictable group of parties, this parliament will still likely get behind Peruvian President Martin Vizcarra's anti-corruption drive. And the main force blocking that drive for two years — Popular Force — now has much less parliamentary clout. This result could mean the passage of promised anti-corruption legislation, see the country's Senate reconvene, end parliamentary immunity and produce significant reforms to Peru's arcane campaign finance system.

Most Peruvian voters approve of Vizcarra's anti-corruption drive. According to an Ipsos poll, the public was 80 percent in favor of the dissolution of the former parliament in September. The dissolution may well have helped Peru evade significant anti-government protests like those that rocked Ecuador and Chile last fall. A new parliament focused on fighting corruption should similarly help maintain political stability over the next 18 months.

The effectiveness of this parliament, however, will be limited because it will be in session for only a short time, until regularly scheduled elections in 2021. Of course, an already-disillusioned public could lose faith in the new parliament before then. Or, parties and politicians targeted in Vizcarra's anti-corruption drive could try to stoke anti-government unrest.

Peru's economy is largely stable compared to its Latin American peers, which will help stem discontent during this session of parliament. A fragmented parliament largely elected to pursue anti-corruption measures might not agree on aspects of economic policy, making adjusting to new conditions more difficult.

Context

The September 2019 dissolution of parliament by Vizcarra in the name of fighting corruption marked a major milestone in the Peruvian saga of the Odebrecht corruption scandal that has rocked Latin America. Vizcarra so far has acted within the scope of the Peruvian Constitution, but previous presidents seeking to clean house have crossed the line into the abuse of power, even via technically legal means. Should Vizcarra or parliament lose popularity, the tides of popular approval could swing against him, though this is unlikely in the near term.