What Happened
Israel is bracing for a possible extended fight with Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) after militants fired some 160 rockets and mortars from Gaza into southern Israel, The Times of Israel reported Nov. 12. This new round of fighting began after an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) airstrike killed senior PIJ commander Baha Abu al-Ata at his Gaza residence. The retaliatory rocket fire prompted Israel to close most schools and businesses in the southern part of the country, and, for the first time since the Gaza War in 2014, authorities temporarily closed businesses in Tel Aviv. Rocket and mortar fire connected with the current round of violence will threaten personnel and facilities in southern and central Israel, and Israeli authorities will likely restrict travel, public transport and commercial operations in the short term. Notably, Israeli officials said, Israel is not targeting Hamas, which it typically blames for any rocket fire from Gaza.
Why It Matters
Indications suggest that the current bout of fighting could become the largest military exchange between Gaza and Israel since 2014, though it might still subside. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the IDF operations in Gaza would "take time," while PIJ militants said they would continue to fire rockets in retaliation for airstrikes against Gaza.
Israel has fought four wars in Gaza since Hamas came to power, and another war is a persistent risk. Relative calm had prevailed in the Palestinian territory since May, when militants fired over 500 rockets and mortars into Israel in the largest military exchange between Israel and militants in Gaza since 2014.
What Could Be Next?
Factors suggesting the situation will escalate include rocket attacks that inflict Israeli casualties, the use of longer-range rockets capable of striking Tel Aviv or Beersheba, and any call-up of Israeli reservists, which, given the economic disruptions it causes, occurs only in serious situations. The course taken by Hamas, which has thus far has stayed out of the Israeli-PIJ conflict beyond blaming Israel for any violence following the targeted Israeli strike, will also do much to determine how the situation plays out. Pro forma condemnation of Israeli action against fellow Palestinians aside, Hamas might well try to exploit the weakening of a rival militant group, which it competes with for influence in the Gaza Strip.
