What's Happening
Swedes will head to the ballot box on Sept. 9 for a vote that will reveal whether the country's mainstream parties can withstand the meteoric rise of their populist rivals. Questions on divisive issues such as immigration, relations with the European Union and possible NATO membership will depend heavily on the coalition that emerges from this weekend's vote.
In Sweden's multiparty parliamentary system, alliances of several parties are necessary to form a government. Opinion polls suggest that the governing center-left alliance, which includes Prime Minister Stefan Lofven's Social Democratic Party and the Greens (the Left Party also provides support but is not currently part of the coalition), boasts about 40 percent support — putting it in a dead heat with its center-right rival, which features the Moderate Party, the Center Party, the Liberals and the Christian Democrats.
The joker in the pack, however, is the right-wing Sweden Democrats, which could win between 17 percent and 20 percent of the vote, up from the 13 percent it received in the last general election in 2014. The party strongly opposes immigration and appeals to a growing segment of voters that is worried about increasing numbers of new arrivals and crime in the country. In a way, the Sweden Democrats have already won, as immigration and debates about law and order dominated the electoral campaign because of the party's efforts.
Why It Matters
If both the center-left and the center-right fail to win a majority in Parliament, one of the blocs could forge ahead with a minority government, or both could form a German-style grand coalition. Sweden's moderate parties traditionally have refused to cooperate with the Sweden Democrats, and they will probably seek to maintain such a policy after Sept. 9. But depending on the election results, the party could become the deciding factor if no bloc wins enough seats to govern alone. Should this happen, Sweden would join the likes of Italy and Austria in vaulting an anti-immigration party into power — whether as a formal member of government or an external supporter in Parliament.
No matter what Sweden's next government looks like, it will face several foreign policy challenges. Sweden's mainstream politicians in general support EU membership, even if the country is not in a rush to join the eurozone. But a government including the Sweden Democrats would be far more skeptical of EU integration. The party opposes European federalization, believes Stockholm should reduce its financial contribution to the union and has even proposed a referendum on abandoning the bloc entirely.
What's Ahead
On defense and security, Stockholm will continue to prioritize cooperation with fellow EU member states and other Nordic countries, as well as retain a special focus on the Baltic area. But the evolution of the debate over NATO membership will depend on the parties that ultimately take power. Sweden's current strategy consists of maintaining close ties with NATO without formally becoming a member of the trans-Atlantic alliance. The center-right tends to be more supportive of NATO membership than the center-left, while the issue is a nonstarter for the Sweden Democrats. The chances of the future Swedish government joining the alliance would diminish significantly if the Sweden Democrats participate in the ruling coalition.
But regardless of the Sweden Democrats' ultimate position in a new government, the country is unlikely to join NATO in the near future, as doing so would require a combination of broad parliamentary and popular support (opinion polls show that Swedes are still divided on the issue), a potential referendum (which is not mandatory but probably necessary from a political point of view) and coordination with fellow non-NATO member Finland (which is also internally divided on the issue). But even if Sweden does not formally join the alliance, the ideology of the government that emerges after Sept. 9 will shape the domestic debate on the issue — along with a number of other hot-button issues.
