The center-left Social Democrats won the largest share of the vote in the elections (31.2 percent), but they now need to garner support from other parties to form a government. The party is in talks with smaller parties, including the Green Party, the Center Party and the Liberal Party. This grouping, however, will likely not be sufficient to control the majority of Parliament, especially since the Center Party and the Liberal Party have shown little interest in joining a coalition with the Social Democrats.
The Social Democrats could form a "grand coalition" with the party that received the second-most votes (23.2 percent), the center-right Moderate Party of outgoing Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt. However, the parties have very different ideological positions, meaning such an alliance would be highly unstable.
This dilemma puts the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats at center stage. Following a campaign that criticized the high numbers of asylum seekers and refugees in Sweden and called for stricter migration laws in this generally tolerant country, the party received 12.9 percent of the vote, a record performance for the group.
While the center left is unlikely to reach an agreement with the Sweden Democrats, the center right has expressed some interest in the idea. Before the election, Reinfeldt said he would consider an agreement with the far right on "certain issues." After the election, Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Akesson said his party would support the Moderate Party "if it got something in return."
At this point, one of several scenarios could play out. The center left could form a minority government and depend on external support from other parties to remain in power. The center right could initiate a formal alliance with the Sweden Democrats or, more likely, form a minority government with external support from the anti-immigration party. In the past, the Sweden Democrats have supported some of the center right's policies. This time around, however, the anti-immigration party will push for the center right to support laws that follow the Sweden Democrats' agenda in exchange for continued loyalty. This would include adopting a harsher stance on immigration and scaling down Sweden's generous asylum policies. The party also rejects greater European integration and opposes the association agreement between the European Union and Ukraine.
Nearby Denmark set a precedent for an alignment between the center and far right. Throughout the 2000s, Denmark's center-right government depended on parliamentary support from the far right to remain in power, although they did not enter into a formal coalition. This led the government to approve some of the strictest immigration laws in Europe. A formal alliance between Sweden's center-right Moderate Party and the Sweden Democrats is less likely, but it would not be unheard-of. In the early 2000s, the anti-immigration Freedom Party entered the Austrian ruling coalition. This led to immediate EU criticism, threats to suspend Austria's membership in the bloc and a significant cooling of diplomatic relations with Vienna.
In October, the Swedish Parliament will need to vote on the 2015 budget, and any political alliances will have to be formed by that time. The center right and the center left are each expected to present their own proposals for the budget, and Swedish law allows the bill that garners a majority to pass.
A European Trend
The Sweden Democrats were founded in the early 1980s but entered Parliament for the first time in 2010. Their meteoric rise is representative of a general European trend. In many EU member states, the gap has widened between traditional parties and voters, leading to the emergence of populist, anti-system parties. These parties combine a strong anti-EU agenda — which includes criticism of EU supranational institutions and the common currency — with anti-immigration rhetoric aimed at either Eastern European immigrants or at asylum seekers from Africa and the Middle East.
Anti-system parties performed well in the European Parliament elections in May, and some have even come to seriously challenge the supremacy of traditional political groups. This is the case with Britain's U.K. Independence Party, which criticizes the United Kingdom's membership in the European Union and increasing numbers of immigrants coming from countries such as Romania and Bulgaria. It is also the case with France's National Front, which demands that France leave the eurozone and criticizes the country's minorities. Under pressure from the U.K. Independence Party, the conservative British government has hardened its stance on immigration and promised a referendum on Britain's membership in the European Union. In France, some opinion polls say the National Front could end up in first place in presidential elections, although it would likely be defeated in the runoff election.
The constant influx of immigrants into Sweden has fueled the rise of the Sweden Democrats. In per capita terms, Sweden has accepted more asylum seekers and their relatives than any other EU member. Because these newcomers often face discrimination and lack job opportunities, Sweden has recently witnessed ethnic riots similar to those that have shaken French suburbs over the past decade. During its eight years in power, the center right failed to design policies to successfully integrate immigrants, while the center left failed to propose concrete policies on the issue. The Sweden Democrats are one of the few political parties to openly discuss immigration in their campaigns.
The Sweden Democrats have also been successful in attracting lower-middle-class and youth votes in a country where economic inequality is increasing even as the economy is growing. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Sweden still has some of the lowest income inequality worldwide, but it has increased over the past three decades. Sweden's Gini coefficient, a standard measure that represents the income distribution of a country, increased from 0.21 to 0.26 between the mid-1980s and the late 2000s. The Sweden Democrats succeeded in crafting rhetoric that combines the promise of stricter immigration rules with the promise of a stronger welfare state for Swedish citizens.
The Sweden Democrats still lack the levels of popularity enjoyed by the U.K. Independence Party or the National Front. Even if the Sweden Democrats do not enter the Swedish government this time, the current fragmentation in the Swedish Parliament will probably lead to a fragile government, and new elections cannot be ruled out. However, because Sweden is expecting a record arrival of asylum seekers in 2014, there is certainly room for the Sweden Democrats' popularity to continue to grow.
