(Stratfor)

A familiar figure is taking a new place in Armenia's political arena, and he's sparking equally familiar opposition. Former President Serzh Sarkisian, whose term ended April 9, was appointed the country's next prime minister on April 17. There were 77 votes for and 17 votes against his nomination in Armenia's parliament. Sarkisian's appointment is a controversial one, coming amid a wave of demonstrations begun April 13 by Armenians who oppose the leader's continued hold on power. Indeed, Sarkisian's new term as prime minister will last seven years and comes with expanded powers due to constitutional amendments.

In Yerevan, demonstrations have reportedly grown to 10,000 people, with activists blocking major streets and government buildings. Protesters attempted to storm the parliamentary building before they were pushed back by police, and dozens of people have been arrested as the demonstrations spread to other cities. In response, opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan has called for sustained resistance and a nationwide "velvet revolution."

Despite the noise and the flurry of activity, the protests have so far failed to distinguish themselves from previous large-scale demonstrations that have occurred during major political transitions in Armenia. Rather, they bear resemblance to the protests during the country's last major political transition in 2008, when Sarkisian was first elected president. Both featured large demonstrations, clashes with police and familiar opposition leaders — Pashinyan is a member of the same party as former President Levon Ter-Petrosyan, who spearheaded the protests back in 2008. The 2008 protests lasted for 10 days, leading to hundreds of arrests and 10 deaths.

However, the 2008 movement petered out after Ter-Petrosyan was placed under house arrest and the government declared a state of emergency, which included a media blackout. If the current demonstrations sustain themselves or grow in the coming days or weeks, they could prompt a similarly harsh government crackdown. However, the protests are more widespread this time and come in a different political context, as Sarkisian achieved office through an in-house extension of his own political power rather than direct, albeit controversial, elections. Ten years after protests failed to achieve their goals, the next wave still has the potential to create disruption or political change. If that happens, Russia — Armenia's main ally and security guarantor, with a military base in the country — may consider intervening to preserve Armenia's political stability and Sarkisian's hold on power.

RANE
SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Expert analysis when it matters most.

Get access to RANE's decision-grade geopolitical intelligence.