As purges continue across Turkey in the wake of the attempted military coup, the leaders of certain countries are attempting to defend and solidify their holds on power. An observer need look no further than Turkey's immediate periphery in the Caucasus and Central Asia for evidence. On Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev unveiled constitutional amendments to prolong presidential terms from five to seven years. Meanwhile, Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimukhammedov set a date for a similar presidential term extension to take effect in his country.
It is no coincidence that the leaders of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are trying to centralize power, much as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has in recent years. In part, a perceived increase in external security threats is driving the centralization efforts in these countries. The emergence of the Islamic State — though a more immediate problem for Turkey, given its role in the Syrian conflict — has also shaken the Caucasus and Central Asia. Azerbaijan and the Central Asian states have proved a fertile recruiting ground for the militant group, and hundreds of citizens from these countries have joined its ranks in Syria and Iraq. Concerned about the risks these fighters will pose to their homelands upon returning from battle, the governments of these countries redoubled their efforts to disrupt and prevent militancy within their borders.
But as in Turkey, the extremist threat is only part of the story. Since governments throughout the area often hype up the militant menace to justify crackdowns on political opponents, the true extent of the threat that the Islamic State and other Islamist militant groups present to the region is unclear. Indeed, the governing bodies of these countries may be more concerned about securing their power and quashing internal opposition elements than defeating foreign-inspired jihadism.
Throughout these countries, protests over deteriorating socio-economic conditions are also on the rise. Falling wages and climbing unemployment have compounded domestic discontent in the region, fueled by low oil prices and the return of migrants from Russia. In response, states across the region have clamped down on security and increased executive power to cope with public unrest. Even before Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan's constitutional amendments were proposed, Tajikistan changed its own constitution to abolish term limits. Meanwhile, Armenia is transitioning to a parliamentary system designed to ensure President Serzh Sarkisian's influence over future Armenian governments. Power has not changed hands in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan since before the Soviet Union fell, but the aging presidents of these nations are engineering succession plans that will entrench the rule of their families or clans for years to come.
As security crackdowns become more common in the Caucasus and Central Asia, they lead to only greater volatility. Since Kazakh authorities detained more than 1,000 people ahead of planned protests in June, the country has experienced two attacks against security forces. Armenian security forces are still engaged in a standoff with members of the Founding Parliament movement, which took over a police building on Monday, demanding Sarkisian's resignation over what the group deemed an illegal centralization of power. The group also attributed its actions to Armenia's loss of territory in Nagorno-Karabakh during the recent military escalation there. As the other side in that conflict, Azerbaijan's desire to divert attention from its domestic political and economic concerns with a military victory likely influenced the recent outbreak of fighting in the disputed region.
Like Turkey, states across the Caucasus and Central Asia are contending with increased risks to their security. Regardless of whether Islamic militancy or growing political dissent are to blame for elevating these risks, countries throughout the region have resorted to political centralization and security crackdowns to mitigate them. But as the coup attempt in Turkey and the recent violence in Armenia and Kazakhstan illustrate, their efforts could simply make matters worse.
