The upcoming Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang are set to display warming relations between North and South Korea, but the North still saw fit to showcase its military might with a parade in Kim Il Sung Square on Feb. 8. The event was announced in late January and marked Army Foundation Day, a celebration of the country's army that has not been held on Feb. 8 since 1977. The new date for the parade was just one day before the Olympic Games opening ceremony Feb. 9 and on the same day as a scheduled performance by North Korean musicians in South Korea. The parade is a preview, in stark contrast, of the next phase of the crisis after the Paralympic Games in March — which will likely include U.S.-South Korea military drills and more North Korean tests.
The North Korean government has been trumpeting the completion of its nuclear force since October, and this event allowed the country to highlight its progress since last April's parade. North Korea's greatest accomplishments since then have been its first successful intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests in July and November, and the parade displayed three Hwasong-14s and four Hwasong-15 ICBMs. In addition, the parade featured six Hwasong-12 intermediate range ballistic missiles and six Pukguksong-2 IRBMs. In total, the event showcased 22 transporter erector launchers (TELs), with four nine-axle TELs carrying ICBMs (Hwasong-15s).
The missiles on display represent the core of the North Korean arsenal moving forward, and new tests will likely focus on improving its reliability. All the devices featured basic serial labels rather than prominent labels, signaling they have been incorporated into the North Korean military and are not just for display. And missiles that largely failed their tests — the Hwasong-10 and Hwasong-13 — were noticeably absent, indicating the North Koreans have removed them from their lineup. Developments after the Olympics will also likely focus on solid launched ICBMs and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, but these tests will take time.
Also on display was a new device that appears to be modeled off the Russian 9K720 Iskander, a short-range ballistic missile. Its presence suggests an increased focus on tactical advantages, and may foreshadow further short-range missile tests in the coming months. Though such weapons would likely be unable to strike anywhere beyond the Korean Peninsula, these systems could be aimed at U.S. headquarters in Korea, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery in Pyeongtaek or government buildings in Seoul. Doing so would emphasize North Korea's ability to respond to a U.S. military strike on the North.
But the military posturing won't end there. The Olympic Games herald a continued period of calm, but resumed U.S.- South Korean military exercises — and the arrival of warmer weather — will likely prompt a restart to the North Korean testing that has been on pause since November. And with North Korea intent on obtaining a credible nuclear deterrent — and the United States intent on neutralizing that threat — the lingering prospect of a military confrontation will return to the fore.
