Brazil's court system could end up determining the ultimate outcome of the country's October presidential election. On Jan. 24, a Brazilian appeals court didn't just uphold a lower court ruling sentencing former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to almost 10 years in prison for corruption, it tacked even more time onto his term, now 12 years total. The ruling will likely prevent da Silva, the leading candidate in this year's presidential race, from running, potentially reshaping the outcome of the contest.
According to a December survey produced by polling company Datafolha, da Silva enjoyed the support of 34 percent of the Brazilian voters interviewed. Behind him was right-wing lawmaker Jair Bolsonaro with half as much support at 17 percent, followed by the environmentalist Marina Silva with 9 percent. No other member of da Silva's Workers' Party is as highly regarded among Brazilian voters, making him hard to replace. As a result, the Workers' Party will exhaust every legal option before dropping him from the ballot. In addition, street protests staged by da Silva's supporters can be expected in major cities such as Sao Paolo, Rio de Janeiro and Porto Alegre.
Not all is lost for da Silva or his party, as he can file another appeal in the hope that a higher court ruling will keep him from being forced out of politics and into prison. He has until the end of August to register his presidential candidacy, after which the Superior Electoral Court will determine whether he may run for president despite his conviction. According to Brazilian electoral law, any politician running for office may be barred from candidacy over a conviction upheld by an appeals court.
Whatever the courts decide, da Silva's fate will weigh heavily on the outcome of the presidential race. If he is allowed to run, he stands a good chance of capturing a third term as president. If he cannot run, votes from his supporters would likely be dispersed among other center-left candidates such as Marina Silva. Without da Silva, Brazil's presidential election would likely end up being be a wide-open affair with many competitive candidates. If that happens, the chances are high that a candidate from a nontraditional political party will be elected.
