Former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has hit a bump on his road back to power. Federal Judge Sergio Moro convicted da Silva on corruption charges July 12 and sentenced him to nine and a half years in prison, Brazilian newspaper Folha reported. Da Silva was accused of receiving bribes from Brazilian engineering company OAS, allegations he denied. He will remain free while he appeals his conviction. Still, the decision has cast doubt on da Silva's plans to return to the presidency and on Brazil's political future.
If the appeals court in Porto Alegre upholds da Silva's conviction before the presidential election in October 2018, the charismatic former president — and current front-runner candidate, according to the latest polls — will be barred from the race. Otherwise, he can keep running to reclaim the office he held from 2003 to 2010. Da Silva will try to avoid a final ruling before October 2018 in an effort to stay in the race, though, of course, winning the appeal would be the ideal scenario for him. Should he lose the appeal, the Workers' Party will be without a nationally recognized candidate to replace him on next year's presidential ballot. The party could find itself divided in the absence of da Silva's leadership and may pursue an alliance with the left-wing Democratic Labor Party's presidential candidate.
In the wake of Moro's ruling, protests are likely to break out among supporters of the Workers' Party and of left-wing movements. The Workers' Party portrayed the proceedings against da Silva as a political trial orchestrated by those who fear his return to power. Now, it will try to use President Michel Temer's political weakness — also a product of corruption investigations — to try to call early elections in hopes that da Silva could win the presidency before the appeals court weighs in on his conviction. (The Porto Alegre court usually takes about a year to review rulings.) The chances of an early vote are small, however. Three-fifths of the members of Congress would have to approve a constitutional amendment to move up the election, and most legislators oppose the idea.
Either way, da Silva's legal troubles are far from over. The coming months may well bring additional rulings against him, considering the other corruption charges he faces. But for the time being, no decision is more important than the conviction Moro handed down July 12.
