The Olympic Games are once again a point of contention between the United States and Russia. Russia's Federation Council is circulating a draft detailing new sanctions that would affect at least 10 people in the West. According to Russia's RBC news agency, the list of sanctions targets includes Olympic officials as well as Robert Mueller, the special prosecutor investigating Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. elections. The sanctions are a response to the decision by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) to bar the Russian Olympic team from participating in the upcoming 2018 Winter Olympics as a result of the investigation into a state cover-up at the 2014 Olympics in Sochi, Russia, of widespread doping among Russian athletes. The same investigation prompted the IOC to strip Russian athletes of 13 of the medals they had won during the Sochi Games.
Many Russians — particularly Russian President Vladimir Putin — took the IOC decision personally, viewing it as a U.S.-coordinated attack on Russia and what was supposed to be a sign of the country's return to global prominence. After the United States organized a 66-country boycott of the 1980 Moscow Olympics, Russia did not want to be humiliated on the global stage again. To build up its international reputation, it spent a staggering $51 billion, the most of any country, on hosting the 2014 Olympics and attempted to earn medals by flushing its sports programs with cash. But not only were several Russians stripped of their medals in Sochi, its athletes are barred from competing under the Russian flag in the Pyeongchang Olympics, which start Feb. 8.
In response, the proposed Russian sanctions target the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) chief Craig Reedy; the head of WADA's special investigation into the Sochi Olympics, Richard McClaren; and a group of individuals mentioned in hacked WADA emails. According to RBC sources, Russia may expand the sanctions but is waiting to do so at least until after the conclusion of the Pyongchang Olympics, and possibly even after Russia hosts soccer's World Cup in June.
Mueller is a notable addition to the list of Olympic sanctions targets. Starting Jan. 29, the U.S. Treasury Department is set to release a series of reports on the effect of expanding the sanctions levied against Russia in August over election interference. The expanded U.S. sanctions won't necessarily be enacted, but the Kremlin has been preparing for that eventuality by moving money held internationally by its elites back to Russia, lobbying in Washington and reaching out to alternative investors to pick up Russian bonds should Americans sell them off.
The proposed sanctions against Mueller are a signal that more will come should Washington expand its sanctions regime against Russia. For now, Russia is waiting to see how far the United States will take its campaign. Though the government in Moscow won't respond in a way that would harm the Russian economy, which is likely slipping back into a recession and facing a string of financial crises, it will strike back boldly enough to satisfy the Russian electorate as the Kremlin prepares for two pivotal elections in 2018.
