When Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy dissolved the Catalan government in October and called for early regional elections, he was hoping that the separatist political parties would be defeated. Instead, the Dec. 21 elections once again resulted in pro-independence parties winning a majority of seats in the Catalan regional parliament. This means that, while Catalonia likely will not secede from Spain anytime soon, the Catalan crisis is far from over.

Rather than allowing either side of the conflict to achieve a clear victory, the Dec. 21 vote signals that uncertainty and disagreement will continue into 2018. The centrist, anti-independence party Citizens won the election with 25 percent of the popular vote, which earned it 37 of the 135 seats in the Catalan parliament. However, three pro-independence parties — the centrist Together for Catalonia, the center-left Republican Left, and the left-wing Popular Unity Candidacy — jointly won 70 seats, two more than the 68 needed to control a majority.

Ultimately, around 47.5 percent of the Catalan electorate supported parties that want independence, almost the same percentage as during the previous regional elections in 2015. On the one hand, this result confirms that secessionist forces have once again failed to win the support of a majority of voters. On the other, it shows that the recent political and economic instability in Catalonia, and Madrid's decision to take direct control of several Catalan institutions, have not discouraged independence supporters. Since calling for the election, Madrid has not made any promises of economic or institutional reforms to win back support from the Catalan voters who want independence. Rajoy's administration hoped that the combination of a high electoral turnout and the fear of the potentially negative consequences of independence would be enough to earn pro-Spain parties a clear win during the elections. But based on the results, the elections can be seen as a political defeat for Madrid.

In the coming weeks, Catalonia's independence camp will have to make several tough decisions. First, the parties will have to reach an agreement to form a government, which requires answers to difficult questions such as who the next president will be. The leader of Together for Catalonia, Carles Puigdemont, is in Belgium and could be arrested if he returns to Spain. Meanwhile, the leader of the Republican Left, Oriol Junqueras, is in prison. Once the parties do select a president, they will then have to decide what to do about their independence plans. Despite controlling a majority of seats in the Catalan parliament, the separatists would not be facing an easy path if they continue their fight. After all, many Catalan companies are against independence, the European Union does not support the Catalan cause and the Spanish state is more than willing to take direct control of the region again if it violates the Constitution. Thus the next Catalan government is likely to push for a mutually accepted independence referendum with Madrid before resorting to unilateral moves. And considering that Madrid is unlikely to authorize a referendum, there is little doubt that discord between the two sides will continue in the next year.