The U.N. Security Council is once again piling pressure on North Korea, hoping to deter it on its path to attaining a credible nuclear deterrent. On Dec. 22, the Security Council approved new tightened sanctions targeting several key export sectors, labor sent abroad and, most importantly, North Korean energy imports. These measures are a response to North Korea's Nov. 28 test of a missile theoretically capable of hitting anywhere in the United States. And though both U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called for China to fully cut off oil to the North with the aim of halting its nuclear program, the approved measures will fall short of that White House push. Thus, though substantial, the sanctions will not stop Pyongyang, particularly now that a nuclear deterrent is within its reach.
The new measures will ban North Korea from exporting goods such as food products, stone, machinery, wood, vessels and electrical equipment. The United Nations will also require countries to expel North Korean laborers within two years, cutting off a source of foreign currency. But while the measures will hurt the North Korean economy, their impact won't be much greater than the already steep consequences of textile and seafood bans. (Moreover, the long deadline for expelling laborers gives North Korea plenty of time to complete its weapons program.)
It's the energy import limit that Washington is hoping will have the biggest impact on Pyongyang. The new U.N. measures will curtail exports of refined products to North Korea by lowering the current global cap from 4 million barrels per year to 500,000 barrels per year. And since China provides the vast majority of energy exports to North Korea, this will force the country's current unilateral limit of 2 million barrels per year even lower. However, the success of this plan will be limited considering that North Korea has a proven ability to weather such pressures and China remains hesitant to roll out measures that could potentially cause the country to collapse.
Indeed, because China has already curbed its exports to North Korea, these new limits will likely have a muted impact. According to China National Petroleum Corporation, diesel and gasoline sales to North Korea were suspended in June over payment concerns, with zero shipments reported in October. In addition, anecdotal information suggests that previously rising gasoline prices in Pyongyang are in fact down 25 percent from last week, which is speculated to be caused by gasoline shipments being trucked over the border. And with the harvest season over, North Korea's need for refined fuel will be less critical.
Finally, further limiting the impact of the new measures is the fact that they will leave North Korea's crude oil imports largely intact. Like the September sanctions, these new measures do not include North Korea's critical lifeline, China's Dandong-Sinuiju pipeline, which can carry 3.64 million barrels of crude oil per year. In addition, the long talk of energy cutoffs and the longer experience of isolation have most likely given Pyongyang reason to prepare by stockpiling hydrocarbons. The North Korean system makes it significantly easier for Pyongyang to ignore popular pressure, and it almost certainly has the resources at its disposal to survive sanctions long enough to complete its weapons program.
