After nearly two months of talks on how to resolve the Rohingya refugee crisis, Myanmar and Bangladesh on Nov. 23 reached a tentative deal for refugee repatriation that is largely in line with an agreement proposed by China. Since late August, more than 620,000 Rohingya Muslims have fled Myanmar for Bangladesh, adding to the 120,000 already there after fleeing violence in October 2016. But this recent deal is unlikely to resolve the crisis anytime soon — or to prevent more conflict in the future.
Struggling to handle the unprecedented influx, impoverished Bangladesh has pushed the international community hard for a speedy (and lasting) resolution. But Myanmar's domestic turmoil over the Rohingya — which pits the military, hardline monks and local ethnic groups against the Rohingya — has made reaching an international solution all but impossible. Myanmar, with the support of China, instead appealed for a strictly bilateral deal that would allow it control of the return process and would keep the international community at arms length.
The deal ultimately struck gives Myanmar largely what it wanted, defining bilateral negotiations as the framework going forward and mandating that the United Nations be involved only "as needed." Bangladesh will still probably invite further U.N. involvement, but Myanmar will push back to keep international observers and scrutiny at bay. The deal calls for the voluntary return of refugees once citizenship is verified but puts oversight of this verification in the hands of the Myanmar government. Many Rohingya lack documentation of their residency in Myanmar, meaning the authorities could deny them reentry. The Myanmar authorities have also reserved the right to detain or prosecute returnees for terrorism.
With northern Rakhine state still subject to military clearance operations and nearly 300 villages destroyed, it is unclear to what the Rohingya would return anyway. The Myanmar government has said it will build temporary villages, but it has given no clear timeframe for the restoration of the original villages. More than 100,000 Rohingya are still cordoned off in displacement camps following communal violence in 2012. Moreover, local Buddhists and the military both oppose a return to the former status quo with the Rohingya, so it will be difficult to implement a lasting solution.
In addition to its broader push against Western human rights norms and its pro-sovereignty stance, China has an interest in ensuring stability in both Myanmar and Bangladesh to protect its sprawling Belt and Road Initiative. The repatriation deal as written aligns with China's three-point plan to resolve the Rohingya conflict, which includes striking a bilateral deal, implementing a cease-fire and promoting Chinese economic development in the region. But it remains to be seen how the deal, which mandates the creation of a joint working group by Nov. 18 and the start of repatriations no later than December 2018, will actually be implemented and enforced. More than this deal, Myanmar's domestic political dynamics and China's defensive tactics against the United States will determine the ultimate fate of the Rohingya.
