Two months into the most recent Rohingya refugee crisis, Myanmar and Bangladesh are still struggling to find a resolution. With more than 500,000 Rohingya having fled Myanmar to join the 300,000 already in Bangladesh, both countries are eager for a solution — albeit one that conforms to their own interests.
Finalizing an agreement has proved difficult given the numerous points of contention. In Myanmar, the political scene is defined by a growing anti-Rohingya sentiment and fears of terrorism. For this reason, Myanmar's desired solution includes heavy vetting of returnees and taking legal action against those it accuses of terrorism.
Yet, Bangladesh wants a more holistic solution that will prevent future crises. Bangladesh is pushing for the full implementation of the terms of a commission headed by U.N. representative Kofi Annan, including a path to citizenship for Rohingya and freedom of movement. Accepting these terms, however, will be politically difficult for Myanmar's leaders because opposition parties such as the Union Solidarity and Development Party have said they will take legal action against such measures.
In attempting to find a resolution, leaders from Myanmar and Bangladesh met last week to sign a tentative deal to open border liaison posts. But the agreement left aside numerous questions about the Rohingya repatriation process. Publicly expressing her government's frustration, Myanmar's de facto leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, accused Bangladesh of stalling the negotiations to secure the delivery of $400 million in promised aid from the international community. But Bangladesh responded with a statement saying the delay was caused by Myanmar's failure to agree to a 10-point list of demands.
Still both sides have submitted names for a joint working group on the matter set to convene in November, and the Bangladeshi foreign minister has planned to visit Myanmar at the end of the month. Regardless of the particulars of the agreement, the return process will likely be painstakingly slow, with Myanmar estimating it can process 300 people per day. The most likely outcome now seems to be a managed return of Rohingya refugees to northern Rakhine state and a semi-permanent placement in seven new refugee camps similar to those that the displaced Rohingya have inhabited since communal violence in 2012.
