One month after holding an independence referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan, the government that organized it is offering to suspend the results. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) issued a statement on Oct. 24 saying it was ready to compromise with the Iraqi government in Baghdad. The KRG said it was willing to freeze the results of September's referendum, begin a dialogue with Baghdad based on the Iraqi constitution, implement a cease-fire and halt military operations. The Iraqi government hasn't released an official response yet, but Iraqi Vice President Nouri al-Maliki and a member of parliament close to Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi have rejected a suspension of the results. Instead, Baghdad has demanded the KRG annul the vote entirely, which the KRG has rejected.
Over the last 48 hours, Iraqi security forces and Shiite-led Popular Mobilization Forces have continued to expand their control over territories once held by the KRG's peshmerga. Most recently, Baghdad's forces have taken control of Makhmur, to the south of the Khurmala oil field. In Nineveh, Iraqi forces have called on Kurdish forces to surrender Rabia and negotiations have occurred for Kurdish forces to hand over the Fishkhabor border crossing as well. Iraq's strategy is clearly to reassert control over territories it believes it should control under the 2005 constitution, which would grant it control over places like Makhmur and Rabia, but not the strategically located Fishkhabor.
Currently, al-Abadi is in Turkey meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, probably to look for more support. Despite stormy relations between Ankara and Baghdad, Erdogan has for the last few years championed strong ties between Turkey, the KRG, and the KRG's ruling party, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). Meanwhile, KRG President Massoud Barzani reportedly may resign. Although the same rumor has popped up before with no result, rumors of infighting between Barzani's family and the KDP shouldn't be discounted.
According to rumor, the presidency would then be dissolved, its powers would be split, and KRG Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani would lead the government. Although Nechirvan is the nephew of President Massoud Barzani and has deep ties to the region's oil wealth, he was largely left out of the referendum process, which was led by the president's son. Nechirvan would act as a moderator between Ankara and Baghdad, and he could help convince both of the KRG's willingness to back down from its calls for independence.
Because Turkey is a regional military power and controls the oil export pipeline for Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan, Ankara has leverage that the KRG and Baghdad will court. Ankara is also firmly against the referendum, and President Barzani and the KDP are likely looking for ways back into Turkey's good graces. Ankara may accept the offer to suspend the referendum results as a starting point for better relations, but it's more likely to continue demanding for annulment.
