Despite recent claims by Iraq's Joint Operation Command that Baghdad completed its objective to retake Iraqi territory previously controlled by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), skirmishes in Kirkuk are still occurring. Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) and Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) have taken over Altun Kupri, a town on the Kirkuk-Arbil provincial border technically inside Kirkuk province. Fighting over the town lasted for three hours before ISF — and some PMU forces, such as Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, which are claiming to be involved — were able to drive out Kurdish peshmerga fighters. By driving Kurdish forces from the town, Baghdad is clearly attempting to reassert as much control as possible over the disputed territories, forcing the peshmerga to withdraw into non-disputed KRG territory.

There has long been disagreement between the KRG and Baghdad on the precise location of the border between the KRG and the rest of Iraq. According to the Iraqi constitution, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is technically not permitted to deploy peshmerga troops in Kirkuk or outside the borders of its semi-autonomous region. However, the KRG's decision to hold an independence referendum was also technically unconstitutional. It is now clear that the KRG miscalculated how strong Iraq's response would be to last month's referendum, as well as the fallout from holding the referendum in the disputed territories.

Baghdad's reaction to quickly seize the disputed territories has only widened the divides between rival Kurdish parties. On Oct. 20, the new Kurdish party created by former Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) member Barham Salih, the Coalition for Democracy, issued a statement criticizing the peshmerga's withdrawal from disputed territories, accusing KRG leadership of weakness, and calling for a transitional government.

Although Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has ordered PMU militias to withdraw from Kirkuk and the other disputed territories, that order has not necessarily been followed. Many of the PMU groups involved in the region have ties to Iran and al-Abadi's political rivals, making his control over them far from absolute. Over the last week, conflicting reports have circulated that PMU forces either participated in the fighting in Kirkuk or moved into areas after they were secured by ISF, neither of which make the Kurds happy. However, a PMU spokesperson did say that al-Abadi had ordered Iraqi forces to stop at the Kirkuk-Arbil border. The dramatic fallout that would occur if PMU or ISF forces moved beyond Kirkuk's border into undisputed KRG territory make such a move almost impossible.

For now, Iraq's central government has taken control over almost all of the land it is entitled to under the 2005 constitution and succeeded in pushing out the peshmerga. By reclaiming areas in the disputed territory, particularly the Kirkuk oilfields, Baghdad is reducing the KRG's leverage. Baghdad's operations have expanded, for now, but the advancing ISF and PMU militias will halt their advances once they have claimed most of the disputed territories. Once that has happened, Baghdad will have gained the upper hand and reduced the KRG's potential leverage gained in last month's independence referendum. The KRG will be in an unfavorable position entering into talks over the region's autonomy and control over the disputed territories.