Military operations may be over in Kurdish-held Kirkuk, but the political battle is about to begin. Iraq's Joint Operation Command announced Oct. 17 that it had achieved its objective in retaking Iraqi territory previously controlled by the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG). Beginning its operation overnight Oct. 15, the Iraqi military seized control of critical infrastructure in Kirkuk province. Iraqi troops are now in control of important oil and natural gas company headquarters, oil fields and, reportedly, the Mosul Dam. Speaking at his weekly press conference, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi denied reports that the central Iraqi government in Baghdad was seeking control over portions of Kurdish territory. (Such a move would violate the Iraqi constitution, which grants significant autonomy to Iraqi Kurdistan.)
According to a U.S. military coalition spokesman, the Iraqi military had planned a coordinated handover between Kurdish peshmerga units and Iraqi troops. Though fighting did erupt in some areas, the coalition spokesman blamed the incidents on "miscommunication" between Iraqi and Kurdish forces. He also noted that there was no proof that Iran-backed Shiite militias were involved in the Kirkuk operation, as many Kurdish sources have alleged. There have been wide reports that militia members moved into areas after the Iraqi military secured them.
Baghdad will almost certainly maintain its control over Kirkuk's oil infrastructure. For the last three years, the KRG has been able to export oil produced at the Bai Hassan oil field and the Avanah and Baba Gurgur formations in the Kirkuk oil field after capturing them from the Islamic State. However, Baghdad is now in control of the fields, considerably weakening the KRG's negotiating position. Iraqi Oil Minister Jabbar al-Luaibi has asked BP (which signed a technical agreement with Kurdish-held Kirkuk in 2013) to quickly develop the Kirkuk oil fields. Currently, the fields under Baghdad's control can produce up to around 400,00 to 450,000 barrels per day. But in the long run, Baghdad has stated that it intends to boost Kirkuk's production to above 1 million bpd.
The consequences of Baghdad's recent operation in Kirkuk are now settling across the region. The Kurdish peshmerga have retreated to other Kurdish strongholds in northern Iraq and are no longer present in much of the disputed territories. Now that Baghdad has the upper hand in negotiations, divisions among the political parties that govern Iraqi Kurdistan are likely to widen.
Turkey and Iran are also stakeholders in Kurdistan and Kirkuk's future. Given the possibility that many Iran-backed Shiite militias are active in the areas around Kirkuk and Kurdistan, many Kurds fear that those militias will capitalize on the territorial shifts. Turkey has so far supported Iraq's military operations in Kirkuk. Though Turkey maintains a strategic alliance with some Iraqi Kurdish political parties, it doesn't want them to become strong enough to encourage Kurdish groups across the Middle East — including in Turkey — to follow suit.
The Iraqi military's operation in Kirkuk has shaken many fault lines in the region. Over the last few years, a common enemy, the Islamic State, united these regional forces. But now that the jihadist threat has diminished, these groups have shifted the focus on securing their own political positions.
