Following a successful offensive to retake Hawija from the Islamic State, Iraqi forces and Shiite-led militias have advanced toward the Kurdish-controlled city of Kirkuk. The force movement has driven north from Hawija into surrounding towns south of Kirkuk. The Kurdish peshmerga forces have reportedly drawn back from their positions in southern Kirkuk, possibly to avoid any escalation of violence with the forces on their doorstep.

The deployments have led the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to allege that the forces were preparing to retake Kirkuk. The KRG's prime minister, Nechirvan Barzani, has called upon the international community to intervene in southern Kirkuk. One peshmerga commander said that Baghdad had issued threats and demanded the peshmerga to fall back to the pre-2003 green line separating Iraq and KRG. However, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi denied that Iraq's forces would attack the Kurds and called the reports "fake news."

The Kurdish forces in Kirkuk have reason to fret. On Sept. 25, the KRG held an independence referendum, which drew the ire of Baghdad not just because the KRG held a referendum but also because it held the referendum in disputed territories such as the oil-rich province of Kirkuk. However, rather than trying to assert control over parts of Kirkuk, the troop deployment appears to be an attempt by Baghdad to strengthen its negotiating position and lobby control of some the more important oil fields. By applying pressure on Kirkuk, Baghdad could also drive a wedge between the fragmented political parties that govern Iraqi Kurdistan.

The broader issue at stake is the negotiations between Arbil and Baghdad. Both governments have overlapping claims in Kirkuk and other provinces. In one such province, Diyala, Shiite-led militias tried to assert control over the territory, claiming that the Kurds had no right to it. As the negotiations unfold, the risk of conflict erupting in these disputed territories is becoming increasingly possible.