The Catalan government failed to meet Madrid's most recent deadline to clarify whether it had seceded, and now the Spanish government is carefully studying its next moves. Last week, Madrid gave Catalan leaders until Oct. 16 to explain whether the region had declared independence during a regional parliament session Oct. 10. But in a letter sent to the Spanish government Oct. 16, the Catalan government declined to answer the question. Now it has until Oct. 19 to abandon its independence claims. But Barcelona will likely remain insistent on its intention to leave Spain, meaning Madrid will probably take control of certain Catalan institutions and resources.
The Spanish Constitution gives the central government the power to take direct control of different parts of a region in case of a serious violation of law. According to Spanish media, Madrid is currently considering exercising this power over Catalonia's interior and finance ministries, as well as its regional police. By taking control of the region's finances, Madrid limits the Catalan government's ability to carry out its daily functions. Meanwhile, by choosing to focus on the regional police and interior ministry, the Spanish government shows its concern about a worsening security situation. Any of Madrid's attempts to control Catalan institutions or arrest prominent Catalan leaders will probably trigger large demonstrations, which could turn violent. And Madrid has not forgotten that the Catalan police did not fully cooperate with the central government's attempts to block the region's illegal Oct. 1 independence referendum.
In theory, the Spanish government also has the power to dissolve Catalonia's government and call for early regional elections. But Madrid may hold off on this decision, choosing instead to continue its strategy of progressively increasing pressure on Catalan separatists. After all, in the current political environment, it's difficult to predict how a snap election would go. The events in recent weeks may have led more Catalans to consider remaining in Spain, but they could have just as easily fueled the secessionist fire. Furthermore, some pro-independence groups have called for a boycott of any snap elections in the region, a move that would damage the legitimacy of the vote.
As the Spanish government weighs its options, it continues to put legal pressure on prominent Catalans. On Oct. 16, Spain's National Court ruled to keep the leader of Catalonia's regional police out of jail on provisional terms while he undergoes investigation over alleged sedition. On the same day, the court ordered the leaders of two nongovernmental pro-independence organizations, the Catalan National Assembly and Omnium, to be held without bail — also for alleged sedition. In response, the two organizations have called for protests to take place Oct.17.
Now that all parties are so deeply embedded in the conflict in Catalonia, the odds are slim that they will come to a solution by negotiating. The Catalan government is asking for dialogue, but it insists that it wants a legally binding independence referendum. Madrid refuses to allow that. The Spanish government, in turn, wants the Catalan government to abandon its independence claims before any talks can take place, and it's looking less likely by the day that Catalonia's leaders will concede to that. So, rather than marking an end, Madrid's potential intervention in certain Catalan institutions will only be the start of a new phase in the dispute.
