Catalonia's president, Carles Puigdemont, has proclaimed the region's independence from Spain. But in a speech before the Catalan parliament on Oct. 10, Puigdemont also asked the legislative body to suspend its enforcement for several weeks to initiate a dialogue with the Spanish government, one facilitated by international mediators. According to Puigdemont, the referendum has shown that Catalonia has the right to be its own republic. Still, he also acknowledged that tensions are high and an outside mediator is needed before the region can be independent.
Puigdemont's mixed message is the result of internal divisions within the secessionist camp. Moderate forces wanted to delay the declaration of independence to buy more time to negotiate with Spain, while more radical members wanted independence to be enforced immediately. With his speech, Puigdemont sought a balance between both positions, as he promised Catalonia would be independent but also said it would be "within weeks," providing no specific date. Recent announcements that companies based in Catalonia moved their legal seats outside the region may have influenced Puigdemont’s decision as well, as they suggested that a unilateral declaration of independence could undermine the Catalan economy.
The Spanish government now has several options. Even if independence does not take effect immediately, Madrid could take Barcelona's action as an unacceptable challenge to Spain's constitutional order. As a result, it could suspend Catalonia's autonomy and take control of all or some of the region's institutions. Madrid could also dissolve the Catalan government and call for early regional elections. Either option would first require the Spanish Senate's authorization, so enforcement could take a few days. But Madrid has other options, such as declaring a state of emergency or even a state of siege. These options would become more likely in the case of severe social unrest. In recent days, both the pro- and the anti-independence camps have shown that they can take hundreds of thousands of people to the streets of Catalonia. Further upheaval cannot be ruled out.
Yet Madrid and Barcelona are not the only players in this crisis. Several prosecutor's offices in Spain are investigating whether any crimes have been committed before and after Catalonia's Oct. 1 independence referendum. Puigdemont and several members of his government could be arrested if a Spanish judge believes a crime has been committed. Such an outcome would trigger massive protests in support of the Catalan government, which would put the Spanish government in the dilemma of whether to use force to suppress them.
And Puigdemont's request for international mediation may not bear fruit, either. The Spanish government considers Puigdemont and his government to have violated the law, and therefore Madrid doesn't see the current Catalan administration as a valid dialogue partner. In recent weeks, the Spanish government has said it doesn't want any outside mediators to interfere with the Catalan crisis. The Catalan conflict will continue, and more weeks of political and economic uncertainty will follow. The Catalan government may have bought a few more weeks, but tensions won't de-escalate any time soon.
