When it comes to the process of forming a ruling coalition in Germany's federal assembly, the Bundestag, the first step for Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is reaching an agreement with its Bavarian sister-party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), on the issue of migration policy. On Oct. 9, Merkel announced in a press conference that the two groups had done exactly that.
Though the CSU has been asking for years to set a limit to the number of asylum applications that Germany can process every year, the CDU has regularly rejected the proposal on the grounds that it's unconstitutional. After the CSU lost a considerable amount of votes to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), however, CSU leader Horst Seehofer blamed Merkel and her refugee policy, which he said was unpopular with many German citizens.
During talks on Oct. 8, Merkel and Seehofer agreed on a compromise: There won't be a limit but, rather, a target of 200,000 refugees per year. It will be a net number that does not include migrants who voluntarily return or are deported to their country, and it will be flexible in case of international humanitarian crises. Furthermore, the groups want to work on a broader migration policy to tackle the root of the problem. This would include more cooperation with countries of origin and transit (perhaps modeled after the European Union-Turkey refugee deal), the continued maintenance of German border controls, increased protection of external EU borders, and efforts by Germany to reform of the EU asylum system.
The CDU and the CSU may have resolved their disagreement, but coalition talks from here on out still won't be smooth sailing. Parliamentary elections in Germany resulted in no clear majority able to form a government, so Merkel's party will need both the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the environmentalist Greens to form a ruling coalition with a parliamentary majority. On Oct. 9, the chancellor announced that official coalition negotiations would start on Oct. 18, after regional elections in Lower Saxony on Oct. 15.
During those talks, which will involve all four parties, migration will again be a key, and controversial, topic. The FDP shares the CSU's interest in regulating immigration, differentiating between asylum seeker and economic migrants and accelerating the return of non-refugees. The Greens, on the other hand, oppose any limitations on the number of asylum seekers. As of now, Greens party leaders Cem Ozdemir and Simone Peter are still planning to participate in coalition talks.
But migration won't be the only difficult issue that the parties will have to negotiate. FDP leader Christian Lindner has repeatedly said that his party is prepared to join the opposition if other coalition members are unwilling to agree to some of the FDP's demands, particularly those related to eurozone policies. The party opposes a risk-sharing banking union, wants to reform the eurozone by introducing stricter rules for the monetary union and wants an independent institution — not the European Commission — to guarantee the implementation of the rules.
The final results of Germany's coalition talks will impact several European policies. The German government's stance on border controls inside the Schengen zone, French President Emmanuel Macron's EU reform proposals, and other topics will determine just how much progress can be made on all of them.
