Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's snap election gamble is getting risky. By calling the Oct. 22 vote and dissolving the lower house, he appeared poised to catch the divided opposition on the back foot. But things have changed and the biggest challenger to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the newly formed conservative Hope Party, gained a major advantage Sept. 28. On the same day that Abe dissolved the lower house, the main opposition Democratic Party declared that it would not run any candidates in the upcoming polls and instead urged its 88 lawmakers to either join the Hope Party or run as independents.
It's an important surprise move: While the Democratic Party is in disarray and polling poorly, the Hope Party could mobilize voters frustrated or unimpressed by the establishment LDP. Driving the momentum of the Hope Party is Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike, a former LDP defense minister whose local grouping delivered a stunning defeat to the LDP in Tokyo's municipal elections held in July. And poll numbers suggest that the Hope Party is gaining steam, polling at 18 percent of votes compared to LDP's 29 percent according to Mainichi Shimbun. The figures are a rise from this past weekend, when Japanese publications Kyodo and Nikkei put the Hope Party at 6.2 and 8 percent respectively. And, with many voters still undecided, the party has an opportunity to whip up enthusiasm in the coming weeks.
Currently, 14 lawmakers have joined the ranks of the Hope Party and the Democratic Party's decision to step aside will put many more at its disposal. One Hope Party official said the party plans to run as many as 200 candidates nationwide. But not all of the Democratic Party lawmakers will be welcome. Koike has indicated that she would vet incoming Democratic Party members according to their stance on constitutional reform and defense, namely the 2015 security laws. Koike's vetting process would leave many Democrats, already divided into left- and right-leaning camps, out. Still, the Democratic Party's local organizing infrastructure and, possibly, access to its campaign funds, would be a key advantage for the Hope Party.
At the moment, it's still likely that the LDP will retain its majority in the Japanese parliament, especially when its coalition ally Komeito is factored in. A strong showing from the Hope Party, however, would be a stunning blow for Abe himself, who is facing a leadership contest in 2018 and surrounded by numerous challengers from within his own party. But in terms of its actual agenda, the Hope Party largely aligns with the LDP on defense and constitutional reform — meaning that Japan's movement toward renormalizing its military could remain broadly on track.
