With his approval ratings having rebounded and his political opposition in disarray, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has decided to strike while the iron is hot — officially announcing plans to dissolve the Lower House of the Diet on Sept. 28 and to hold snap elections on Oct. 22. Abe's window to call elections has gradually been closing, and he may be betting that this is his last best chance to hold them. Lower House terms expire in December 2018 and Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership elections will be held the preceding September. Abe will need a strong political position if he hopes to secure a third term as head of the party and to pursue his ambitious constitutional reform agenda, aimed at providing the legal architecture for Japan's
military renormalization.
After months of low approval ratings, Abe's poll numbers have rebounded from a record low to around 50 percent. Both his August
Cabinet reshuffle and his handling of the
North Korean crisis proved popular. Waiting for the Diet to resume its session only increases the risk of reigniting the earlier scandals that led to his low approval ratings in the first place. But the elections will also bring challenges for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), and some predict that the ruling party could see its two-thirds majority pruned back to a simple majority. Constitutional reform requires a two-thirds vote in the Diet as well as a nationwide plebiscite.
According to the head of LDP ally Komeito, campaigning will begin on Oct. 10. The opposition Democratic Party is currently facing abysmal numbers and is not showing signs it will recover anytime soon. The party's leader Renho Murata resigned in late July following a massive defeat in
Tokyo metropolitan elections to the newly minted Tokyo Residents First Party. This has led to a contentious leadership battle, with the party still coalescing. Abe is hoping that by calling elections, he can weaken the opposition at a sensitive time.
The new Tokyo Residents First Party also poses a challenge to the LDP. The group has just recently expanded to the national level in the form of the Hope Party, which will be headed by maverick Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike, a former LDP defense minister. the party, however, is only now taking shape — and it is unclear how prepared it will be for elections. Abe is hoping to take the initiative now before the party becomes more established.
According to Kyodo polling, 6.2 percent of the public plans to vote for the Hope Party compared with 8 percent for the Democratic Party and 27.7 percent for the LDP. More than 42 percent of voters are still undecided. If Koike can galvanize voters, the Hope Party could truly shake up the opposition. And it is still unclear whether the Democratic Party will cut and align itself with her party or whether it will retain its loose coordination with the Japanese Communist Party.
In his speech announcing the snap elections, Abe emphasized the need for strong leadership on North Korea and to bring the country through its enduring demographic challenges. He also unveiled plans to put $17.9 billion from a hoped-for 2019 consumption tax hike into childcare and education. At the same time, Koike is advocating the need to cut the salaries of politicians and to improve female participation in the workforce. She has criticized Abenomics in the past. With Abe's party divided on whether to pursue a strong course of action on the much-desired revisions to the constitution or a softer approach — and Koike's party advocating a slow approach — constitutional reform may well end up being a determining factor in the race.
