Stratfor 2017

Tensions continue to escalate between the Spanish central government and Catalonia's regional government. Madrid is increasing legal, economic and political pressure over Catalan authorities in an effort to disrupt the organization of an independence referendum on Oct. 1. On Sept. 20, Spanish police entered several Catalan government offices in Barcelona, seized documentation related to the referendum and arrested at least a dozen Catalan government officials. In response, thousands of pro-independence demonstrators took to the streets in Barcelona to protest.

The actions of the Spanish police are part of Madrid's larger strategy to undermine Catalonia's independence vote, which the Spanish Constitutional Court has declared illegal. In recent days, police have entered several print shops and seized thousands of pro-referendum posters and pamphlets, as well as ballots. On Sept. 19, they seized boxes containing an estimated 45,000 envelopes with the Catalan government's logo in the city of Terrassa. The Spanish government also ordered the national post office not to distribute any material linked to the referendum, and private courier companies have been raided. Madrid has even taken direct control of Catalonia's finances, arguing that it wants to prevent public money from being spent on the vote. The Catalan government, meanwhile, insists that it has all of the logistical and financial resources to go ahead with the referendum.

As an additional element of its strategy, the Spanish government is also putting pressure on Catalan public officials. On Sept. 19, for example, the mayors of three Catalan municipalities who pledged to cooperate with referendum organizing efforts were summoned to testify before the prosecutor's office in Barcelona. Later this week, at least 34 more mayors will be testifying in various other prosecutors' offices. So far, an estimated 700 Catalan municipalities have said they will offer their public buildings, such as schools, to be used as polling centers on Oct. 1.

In a Sept. 20 speech about recent attempts to prevent the referendum, Catalan President Carles Puigdemont denounced the Spanish government as authoritarian and undemocratic. He also communicated support for the arrested public officials and asked that Catalans express themselves peacefully on the day of the referendum. So far, pro-independence demonstrations have been large, yet peaceful. But as frictions between Madrid and the Catalan government escalate, sporadic violence and clashes with the police cannot be ruled out. The Spanish government has said the referendum won't happen, but on Oct. 1, many Catalans are likely to try to vote, or at least take to the streets to have their voices heard.

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