Bitterness between the Spanish government and secessionist forces in Catalonia worsened as the Catalan independence movement gathered momentum this week. On Sept. 6, the Catalan parliament approved a law to hold a referendum on the region's independence. A few hours later, the Catalan government issued a decree officially calling for the referendum to be held Oct. 1. The Spanish central government in Madrid said it will not let the referendum happen, arguing that it would violate the Spanish constitution and asking the Spanish Constitutional Court on Sept. 7 to declare the referendum law and the decree invalid.
The pro-independence parties in the Catalan parliament — that control a majority of seats in the regional legislature — approved the law, which does not introduce a minimum voter turnout for the referendum to be valid and establishes that a simple majority will decide the result. According to the Catalan government, if voters support independence, Catalonia will start a process of disconnection from Spain that will include a declaration of independence and the writing of a constitution. However, the Catalan government has promised that if people vote against independence it would resign and call for early regional elections.
While the Spanish government has said it will not let the referendum happen, Madrid has also stated that its reaction would be "proportional." The Spanish constitution gives the central government the power to suspend a region's autonomy and to take direct control of institutions such as the regional police, in the case of a severe violation of the law. Removing Catalonia's autonomy is not Madrid's first choice reaction, however, as the central government is worried that such actions could further exacerbate secessionist sentiments in Catalonia.
Madrid's strategy so far has mostly focused on challenging every Catalan secessionist move in the judiciary. On Sept. 7, Spain's state prosecutor's office said it would present criminal charges against members of the Catalan government and parliament. Catalan officials found violating the law face being banned from office, being fined, or even being sentenced to prison.
Madrid hopes that legal, political and economic pressure on Catalonia will force the secessionists to abandon their referendum plans. Suspending Catalonia's regional autonomy is currently not on the table, but it could happen if the secessionists refuse to back down. But such extreme measures by the central government would probably not end the conflict in Catalonia.
Opinion polls show that the independence movement has divided Catalan society. While support and opposition to independence are almost evenly split, most Catalans think that they should be given the right to vote on their future. The Spanish central government is unlikely to authorize a legal referendum, which means that even if the current phase of acrimony does not lead to Catalan independence in the short term, the issue will not disappear anytime soon.
