A suicide bomb attack killed 22 concertgoers and injured at least 59 more as they were leaving an Ariana Grande show at Manchester Arena on May 22. The explosion occurred at 10:33 p.m. local time, as the show was ending and was captured in several video recordings by people nearby. The blast occurred inside a foyer that linked the arena to Victoria Station, targeting large crowds of fans who were leaving the venue. British Prime Minister Theresa May has confirmed that the explosion was the work of a lone suicide bomber. British authorities later identified the attacker as Salman Abedi on May 23.
The timing and location of the blast indicate a pre-meditated and well-planned attack. By striking the crowd of concertgoers as they were leaving the venue and streaming toward the station, Abedi was able to find a way to target the crowd without having to get past security present at the venue. In this way it was similar to attacks directed against the soft side of airports, primarily at departure and arrival zones. Authorities have not yet released information about the construction of the device or the type of explosives used. Many of the injured reportedly suffered from shrapnel wounds, however, indicating that the explosive device was constructed to cause significant carnage and maximize casualties by targeting crowds in a confined space after the concert.
The attack comes a little over two weeks before the United Kingdom holds general elections. An attack of this magnitude is going to inject even more emotion into debates over terrorism and security — which the attacker likely intended. British political parties have agreed to temporarily suspend campaigning to honor the attack victims.
This is the first successful suicide bombing attack in Britain since the 2005 attacks that targeted London's public transportation system and killed 56 people. There have been several failed attacks and disrupted plots since then: Earlier this month police arrested three women in East London suspected of plotting an attack. The few successful attacks were only modestly so, including the August 2016 stabbing attack in Russell Square and even the March 22 Westminster Bridge vehicular and knife attack. Shortly after the Westminster bridge attack, police in Manchester arrested two people with suspected connections to that attack, suggesting that terrorist networks had a presence in and around Manchester. The May 22 bombing was the most well planned and sophisticated attack in the United Kingdom in years.
There are other groups in the United Kingdom that have successfully conducted bombing attacks inside the country, including radical Irish nationalists such as the New Irish Republican Army, though they are unlikely to be behind the May 22 blast. Militants linked to the New Irish Republican Army detonated a bomb under the vehicle of a prison officer in Belfast in March 2016, resulting in his death. And the New Irish Republican Army and other Irish Republican groups have carried out multiple bombings, attempted bombings and shootings — mostly targeting police and military personnel in Northern Ireland. In fact, the last large-scale terrorist attack in Manchester was a truck bomb detonated by the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) in 1996. Though that explosion caused extensive damage to the downtown area, the PIRA announced its intentions before the blast, allowing authorities to evacuate buildings and prevent fatalities. An unannounced suicide bombing against a major entertainment venue targeting civilians is well outside Irish Republicans' normal tactics and target set.
While the attack is an outlier for recent jihadist activity in the United Kingdom, it is consistent with attacks directed or inspired by the Islamic State and al Qaeda targeting entertainment venues in Orlando, Istanbul and Germany. Moreover, the Islamic State's Amaq news agency posted a claim of responsibility for the attack on May 23, saying the attacker was a "soldier of the caliphate" adding he had placed multiple explosive devices in the midst of a gathering of "crusaders," claims that have not been supported by the investigation to date.
Such assertions indicate Abedi was not directed by individuals in the core Islamic State-controlled territory, though it does not rule out the possibility that he had been inspired by the group's propaganda. The claim, after all, dealt in generalities and gave no details of the incident, the attacker's name, or any other indication that the group had inside knowledge of the plot or Abedi. It's not the first time that the Islamic State has made a premature claim on an attack, similar to the claim made after the April 2017 attack in Paris. Additional reports said that the attacker was previously known to British security services, which is consistent with attackers in other recent cases.
While it's possible for a single person to prepare for and conduct this type of attack, the critical question now becomes whether other people were involved and whether they're developing other plots. The fallout from the Manchester attack will prompt another round of counterterrorism raids and arrests around Manchester and other areas of the country. Confrontations with suspected militants could become violent as other individuals and cells feel forced to carry out premature attacks before arrest, similar to the 2016 Brussels Airport attack, which was a hastily planned while under police pressure.
