British Prime Minister Theresa May on April 18 unexpectedly called for an early election to take place June 8. According to May, the vote is needed because dissent from British opposition parties is undermining the government's plans for the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union. She also suggested that holding an election at the start of the Brexit process would create less uncertainty about the future than holding it toward the end of London's contentious negotiations with Brussels.
The next general election in the United Kingdom is currently scheduled for 2020. To hold an early election, the government needs support from two-thirds of the members of the House of Commons, where the ruling Conservatives currently hold a majority of just five seats. May says she will present a motion in the Commons on April 19 to authorize the early election. In theory, the opposition could block the early vote. But Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn and his Liberal Democrat counterpart, Tim Farron, have both said their parties will not stand in the way of a snap election.
May's decision is based on several factors. To begin with, the Conservative Party has been polling strongly, earning backing from around 42 percent of voters, compared to just 22 percent for Labour. If the Conservatives maintain such a sizable advantage through the election, May would control a solid majority in the House of Commons, allowing her government to take on the Brexit process from a position of political strength. Indeed, the Brexit talks are still at a very early stage, and the June polls would take place before any meaningful negotiations with the European Union get underway. Finally, the British economy is growing and unemployment is low, making elections safer for the Tories now than they would be later in the Brexit process, when the economic pain from potentially losing access to the European common market (the area where goods, people, services and capital move freely) may be more severe.
But the prime minister's decision is not without risks. The Brexit referendum itself underscored the fallibility of pre-election polling and the potential for elections to produce surprising results. May is taking a calculated risk, but the campaign could be harder than she expects.
The early elections are unlikely to abort the Brexit process. Most politicians in the United Kingdom have said the result of the Brexit referendum has to be honored. However, the electoral campaign will probably focus on the terms under which Brexit should happen. While the referendum asked voters whether they wanted to leave the European Union, it did not ask about the terms of the exit. The Conservatives have chosen to leave the EU single market and to attempt to negotiate a free trade agreement with the bloc, but other parties are already framing the election as chance to change the terms of the Brexit. Some parties may promise to keep the United Kingdom in Europe's customs union or to join the European Free Trade Association, a bloc that includes Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland and is a member of the single market.
A vote June 8 would probably delay the Brexit process for a few weeks at most — likely only a minor setback considering that the European Union is still debating its own negotiation position. The election could, however, change the terms of the negotiation, especially if May's tactical move backfires and a different government takes charge of the country's historic transition.
